C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.28), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CHRW sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.28+0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.28 | +0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.53% | -0.17pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 35% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.60% | -0.57pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 30 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $0.63 |
| Per-event yield | 0.34% |
| Annualized yield | 1.36% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($0.63) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 2, 2026 |
CHRW Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.63 | -2.49% | $184.81 | 30 | no | yes | -9.09% | -8.00% | |
| Q4 | $0.63 | -0.75% | $158.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.06% | -0.21% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | -0.68% | $127.84 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.89% | +4.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | 0.53% | $95.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.28% | -1.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.62 | -0.33% | $98.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.10% | +0.90% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | 0.34% | $106.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.52% | +5.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | -0.30% | $102.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.32% | -1.46% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | -1.41% | $87.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.46% | -4.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | 0.07% | $74.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.10% | -1.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | -0.63% | $81.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.83% | +6.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | -2.08% | $94.63 | >30 | no | no | -9.93% | -8.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | 0.00% | $94.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.80% | -2.87% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | -1.08% | $99.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.40% | +4.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | -0.32% | $100.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.45% | -3.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.79% | $114.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.30% | +0.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | 0.28% | $108.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.94% | -5.76% | |
| Q1 | $0.55 | 0.13% | $102.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.45% | -0.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -0.65% | $104.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.89% | -2.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | 0.09% | $89.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.64% | -0.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.53% | $95.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +4.30% |
- -8.00%
- -0.21%
- +4.06%
- -1.41%
- +0.90%
- +5.49%
- -1.46%
- -4.12%
- -1.57%
- +6.20%
- -8.14%
- -2.87%
- +4.61%
- -3.52%
- +0.60%
- -5.76%
- -0.08%
- -2.59%
- -0.28%
- +4.30%
CHRW Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
CHRW Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CHRW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $126.00
- After-tax dividend
- $81.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$36.96
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$44.94
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.12%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~6.1%
CHRW Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CHRW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CHRW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.53% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.65% | |
| -8.14% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.40% | |
| -8.00% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.