Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CVNA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$869,843.01
Method range
$8.16 – $869,843.01
median $208.87
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $869,843.01 | +1,307,737.93% |
| Exit multiple | $54.66 | -17.82% |
| Analyst target | $363.08 | +445.90% |
| Graham number | $8.16 | -87.74% |
- Forward DCF$869,843.01
- Exit multiple$54.66
- Analyst target$363.08
- Graham number$8.16
Stock price
$66.51
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.08
3Y FCF CAGR
5.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.77
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
77.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -8548.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
5.4%
Your model implies
77.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 5% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 73.5% | 72.8% | 72.1% | 71.3% | 70.6% |
| 14.0% | 76.2% | 75.5% | 74.9% | 74.2% | 73.5% |
| 15.0% | 78.8% | 78.2% | 77.6% | 76.9% | 76.3% |
| 15.0% | 78.8% | 78.2% | 77.6% | 76.9% | 76.3% |
| 15.0% | 78.8% | 78.2% | 77.6% | 76.9% | 76.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$1.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
3.55
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Carvana (CVNA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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