DUK dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Duke Energy (DUK) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.55), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, DUK sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 14, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.09.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.55
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.55 | +0.09 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.91% | -0.22pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 75% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.55% | +1.20pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 18 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$1.09
Per-event yield
0.87%
Annualized yield
3.44%
Previously paid
May 15, 2026 ($1.07)
Last record date
May 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 16, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Duke Energy (DUK). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.07 | -1.09% | $124.31 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.74% | +1.95% | |
| Q1 | $1.07 | -0.79% | $126.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +2.18% | |
| Q4 | $1.07 | -0.21% | $123.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.77% | +0.22% | |
| Q3 | $1.07 | -0.60% | $124.26 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.36% | +0.92% | |
| Q2 | $1.05 | -0.76% | $115.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.20% | +1.38% | |
| Q1 | $1.05 | -0.60% | $113.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.02% | +2.65% | |
| Q4 | $1.05 | -1.09% | $110.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +4.58% | |
| Q3 | $1.05 | -0.65% | $113.11 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +0.26% | |
| Q2 | $1.03 | -1.02% | $103.35 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.22% | -0.52% | |
| Q1 | $1.03 | -0.67% | $91.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.00% | +2.64% | |
| Q4 | $1.03 | -0.29% | $89.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +2.40% | |
| Q3 | $1.03 | -0.94% | $91.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.88% | -0.75% | |
| Q2 | $1.01 | -1.15% | $99.14 | >30 | no | no | -9.19% | -5.37% | |
| Q1 | $1.01 | -1.77% | $99.26 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.60% | -1.34% | |
| Q4 | $1.01 | -1.66% | $97.94 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.07% | +2.74% | |
| Q3 | $1.01 | -0.83% | $110.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.56% | +3.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.99 | -1.02% | $109.91 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.53% | +0.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.99 | -1.05% | $99.51 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.05% | +1.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.99 | -0.67% | $101.96 | 18 | no | yes | -3.92% | -1.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.99 | -1.26% | $107.14 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.57% | +0.68% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 8 | 40% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with DUK's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical DUK ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.50%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+9.92%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+32.02%
Best event
+1.14%
Worst event
-5.37%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · DUK (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.92% | |
| -1.95% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.01% | |
| -5.37% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.86% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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