Duke Energy (DUK) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.55), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, DUK sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 14, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.55+0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.55 | +0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.90% | -0.21pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 75% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.44% | +1.40pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 18 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $1.06 |
| Per-event yield | 0.84% |
| Annualized yield | 3.52% |
| Previously paid | Feb 13, 2026 ($1.06) |
| Last record date | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 16, 2026 |
DUK Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Duke Energy (DUK). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.06 | -0.79% | $126.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +2.18% | |
| Q4 | $1.06 | -0.21% | $123.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.77% | +0.22% | |
| Q3 | $1.06 | -0.60% | $124.26 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.36% | +0.92% | |
| Q2 | $1.04 | -0.76% | $115.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.20% | +1.38% | |
| Q1 | $1.04 | -0.60% | $113.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.02% | +2.65% | |
| Q4 | $1.04 | -1.09% | $110.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +4.58% | |
| Q3 | $1.04 | -0.65% | $113.11 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +0.26% | |
| Q2 | $1.02 | -1.02% | $103.35 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.22% | -0.52% | |
| Q1 | $1.02 | -0.67% | $91.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.00% | +2.64% | |
| Q4 | $1.02 | -0.29% | $89.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +2.40% | |
| Q3 | $1.02 | -0.94% | $91.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.88% | -0.75% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -1.15% | $99.14 | >30 | no | no | -9.19% | -5.37% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -1.77% | $99.26 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.60% | -1.34% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -1.66% | $97.94 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.07% | +2.74% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -0.83% | $110.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.56% | +3.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.98 | -1.02% | $109.91 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.53% | +0.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.98 | -1.05% | $99.51 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.05% | +1.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.98 | -0.67% | $101.96 | 18 | no | yes | -3.92% | -1.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.98 | -1.26% | $107.14 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.57% | +0.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.96 | -0.81% | $101.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.09% | +1.99% |
- +2.18%
- +0.22%
- +0.92%
- +1.38%
- +2.65%
- +4.58%
- +0.26%
- -0.52%
- +2.64%
- +2.40%
- -0.75%
- -5.37%
- -1.34%
- +2.74%
- +3.20%
- +0.02%
- +1.70%
- -1.95%
- +0.68%
- +1.99%
DUK Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 7 | 35% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
DUK Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with DUK's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $214.00
- After-tax dividend
- $139.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$25.22
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$113.88
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.45%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~22.8%
DUK Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical DUK ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · DUK (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.95% | |
| +0.92% | |
| -1.95% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.01% | |
| -5.37% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.84% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.