Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what DUOL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$535,769,729.01
Method range
$24.93 – $535,769,729.01
median $260.81
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $535,769,729.01 | +448,305,254.38% |
| Exit multiple | $416.82 | +248.78% |
| Analyst target | $104.80 | -12.31% |
| Graham number | $24.93 | -79.14% |
- Forward DCF$535,769,729.01
- Exit multiple$416.82
- Analyst target$104.80
- Graham number$24.93
Stock price
$119.51
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.22
3Y FCF CAGR
169.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$465,376.25
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
14.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 100.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
169.1%
Your model implies
14.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 169% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 4.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% |
| 8.1% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% |
| 9.1% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 12.5% |
| 10.1% | 17.4% | 16.9% | 16.3% | 15.6% | 15.0% |
| 11.1% | 19.4% | 18.9% | 18.4% | 17.8% | 17.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
7.95
Demanding vs growth
Net cash
$943M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.88
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Duolingo (DUOL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.