Erie Indemnity (ERIE) seasonality heatmap
Returns across monthly, quarterly, and yearly periods. Cell color encodes signed magnitude; the scale auto-fits each table.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.8% | -4.8% | -6.7% | -12.9% | -2.7% | +5.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | -1.9% | +6.2% | -2.1% | -14.1% | -0.0% | -3.3% | +3.1% | -0.5% | -10.2% | -7.6% | +1.0% | -3.0% |
| 2024 | +3.7% | +17.7% | -1.3% | -4.4% | -5.3% | -0.0% | +22.2% | +15.2% | +6.2% | -16.7% | -1.8% | -6.4% |
| 2023 | -1.3% | -3.7% | -1.6% | -5.7% | -1.5% | -1.9% | +6.3% | +25.6% | +5.4% | -5.6% | +7.0% | +13.3% |
| 2022 | -3.9% | -4.9% | +0.6% | -8.4% | +4.7% | +14.6% | +6.4% | +5.7% | +3.4% | +16.2% | +9.9% | -11.9% |
| 2021 | -0.6% | -0.4% | -8.8% | -2.7% | -6.0% | -3.9% | -3.9% | -4.2% | +0.8% | +16.0% | -9.7% | +3.7% |
| 2020 | +0.9% | -14.2% | +3.7% | +20.8% | +1.2% | +6.5% | +10.1% | +1.6% | -1.5% | +11.3% | -3.1% | +9.7% |
| 2019 | +10.5% | +21.8% | +0.2% | +6.6% | +12.3% | +19.6% | -12.1% | -1.5% | -15.3% | -0.2% | -8.1% | -1.9% |
| 2018 | -1.8% | -2.6% | +1.7% | -0.0% | -3.2% | +3.8% | +6.7% | -0.6% | +3.2% | +2.4% | +5.5% | -2.6% |
| 2017 | +0.4% | +5.8% | +3.4% | +1.6% | -4.9% | +6.2% | +2.6% | -5.2% | -0.2% | +0.9% | +2.5% | -1.7% |
| 2016 | +0.5% | -2.2% | -1.1% | +2.3% | +3.7% | +1.5% | -0.9% | +4.4% | +0.0% | +1.0% | +4.7% | +4.9% |
| 2015 | -3.8% | +0.3% | +0.4% | -4.4% | -1.7% | +0.9% | +6.0% | -5.0% | +1.2% | +6.3% | +10.1% | +0.0% |
| 2014 | -3.2% | +3.4% | -3.9% | +3.6% | +5.7% | -0.6% | -1.9% | +4.5% | -0.1% | +12.0% | +2.8% | +4.1% |
| 2013 | +3.1% | +2.6% | +3.2% | +6.2% | -4.6% | +5.0% | +1.6% | -8.2% | -1.7% | -0.1% | +1.6% | +0.2% |
| 2012 | -1.2% | -0.7% | +2.4% | -0.6% | -6.6% | -0.4% | +0.3% | -10.6% | +0.8% | -2.4% | +14.6% | +0.8% |
| 2011 | +2.2% | +5.1% | +1.8% | +2.6% | -1.7% | -0.7% | +5.0% | -0.2% | -3.2% | +11.7% | -6.5% | +5.9% |
| 2010 | -0.0% | +1.6% | +8.8% | +7.9% | -0.3% | -0.8% | +8.9% | +7.1% | +6.8% | +2.9% | +10.1% | +4.0% |
| 2009 | -5.8% | -15.3% | +13.8% | +4.7% | -2.0% | +3.3% | +6.0% | +3.3% | -3.1% | -4.8% | +4.9% | +6.8% |
| 2008 | -1.6% | -2.5% | +3.7% | +5.2% | -4.2% | -9.9% | -4.4% | +5.8% | -8.6% | -11.1% | +0.7% | +1.7% |
| 2007 | -4.0% | -2.5% | -2.1% | +0.3% | +6.0% | -3.0% | -3.7% | +8.2% | +9.4% | -6.3% | -9.1% | +0.3% |
| 2006 | +0.3% | +0.1% | -0.8% | -2.6% | -0.7% | +2.8% | -4.1% | +3.0% | +2.6% | -2.6% | +11.1% | +3.0% |
| 2005 | +2.0% | -3.6% | +1.6% | -0.8% | +0.8% | +4.7% | +0.8% | -4.1% | +1.2% | +1.0% | +0.1% | +0.4% |
| 2004 | +1.7% | +10.2% | +1.7% | -3.8% | -1.5% | +2.7% | -2.7% | +9.7% | +2.6% | -1.4% | +4.1% | +0.8% |
| 2003 | -4.8% | +6.0% | -0.3% | +3.5% | +7.4% | +2.8% | -1.5% | +0.8% | -4.5% | +3.2% | +0.4% | +6.1% |
| 2002 | +4.8% | -2.2% | +3.6% | +7.6% | -3.2% | -4.0% | +10.3% | -1.8% | -4.6% | -3.7% | -2.6% | -6.8% |
| 2001 | -9.2% | +3.0% | +3.1% | +4.7% | +21.2% | -17.6% | +21.5% | +0.4% | +9.5% | -1.5% | -4.1% | +3.5% |
| 2000 | -5.4% | +1.7% | +4.6% | -7.9% | -7.6% | +14.6% | +1.6% | -2.9% | -5.0% | -4.5% | -10.5% | +19.3% |
| 1999 | -2.0% | -11.1% | +1.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | +5.0% | -3.9% | -1.0% | +22.0% | -2.8% | +5.1% | -3.4% |
| 1998 | -3.9% | +4.8% | +6.3% | +1.1% | -10.2% | +1.3% | +5.6% | -13.6% | +3.8% | -5.1% | +2.9% | +17.9% |
| 1997 | +4.4% | -3.9% | -6.5% | +2.1% | -1.7% | +35.4% | -13.8% | -3.7% | +0.0% | -5.9% | -4.1% | +0.9% |
| 1996 | -2.9% | +1.6% | +33.0% | +30.2% | +17.1% | +4.0% | -4.6% | -5.9% | -3.0% | -2.5% | -12.7% | +0.0% |
| 1995 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -0.7% | +0.8% |
| Avg | -0.8% | +0.6% | +2.1% | +1.4% | +0.3% | +3.0% | +2.3% | +0.9% | +0.6% | +0.0% | +0.8% | +2.3% |
| Median | -1.2% | +0.1% | +1.6% | +1.1% | -1.5% | +2.1% | +1.6% | -0.4% | +0.4% | -1.4% | +1.0% | +0.8% |
| Last 5Y Avg | -0.8% | +2.1% | -2.2% | -9.1% | -1.0% | +1.1% | +6.8% | +8.3% | +1.1% | +0.5% | +1.3% | -0.9% |
| Std Dev (σ) | 3.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% |
| Consistency (μ/σ) | -0.20 | 0.07 | 0.28 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.35 |
| Win Rate (%) | 39% | 52% | 65% | 55% | 32% | 60% | 60% | 47% | 53% | 40% | 61% | 71% |
| Winning / Losing Months | ▲12▼19 | ▲16▼15 | ▲20▼11 | ▲17▼14 | ▲10▼21 | ▲18▼12 | ▲18▼12 | ▲14▼16 | ▲16▼14 | ▲12▼18 | ▲19▼12 | ▲22▼9 |
| Longest Win / Loss Streak | ▲3▼4 | ▲3▼4 | ▲6▼4 | ▲5▼6 | ▲2▼6 | ▲6▼3 | ▲5▼3 | ▲5▼5 | ▲4▼2 | ▲5▼7 | ▲7▼3 | ▲14▼3 |
| Best | +10.5%in January 2019 | +21.8%in February 2019 | +33.0%in March 1996 | +30.2%in April 1996 | +21.2%in May 2001 | +35.4%in June 1997 | +22.2%in July 2024 | +25.6%in August 2023 | +22.0%in September 1999 | +16.2%in October 2022 | +14.6%in November 2012 | +19.3%in December 2000 |
| Worst | -9.2%in January 2001 | -15.3%in February 2009 | -8.8%in March 2021 | -14.1%in April 2025 | -10.2%in May 1998 | -17.6%in June 2001 | -13.8%in July 1997 | -13.6%in August 1998 | -15.3%in September 2019 | -16.7%in October 2024 | -12.7%in November 1996 | -11.9%in December 2022 |
−17.6%+35.4%
2026
Jan-0.8%
Feb-4.8%
Mar-6.7%
Apr-12.9%
May-2.7%
Jun+5.1%
Jul—
Aug—
Sep—
Oct—
Nov—
Dec—
2025
Jan-1.9%
Feb+6.2%
Mar-2.1%
Apr-14.1%
May-0.0%
Jun-3.3%
Jul+3.1%
Aug-0.5%
Sep-10.2%
Oct-7.6%
Nov+1.0%
Dec-3.0%
2024
Jan+3.7%
Feb+17.7%
Mar-1.3%
Apr-4.4%
May-5.3%
Jun-0.0%
Jul+22.2%
Aug+15.2%
Sep+6.2%
Oct-16.7%
Nov-1.8%
Dec-6.4%
2023
Jan-1.3%
Feb-3.7%
Mar-1.6%
Apr-5.7%
May-1.5%
Jun-1.9%
Jul+6.3%
Aug+25.6%
Sep+5.4%
Oct-5.6%
Nov+7.0%
Dec+13.3%
2022
Jan-3.9%
Feb-4.9%
Mar+0.6%
Apr-8.4%
May+4.7%
Jun+14.6%
Jul+6.4%
Aug+5.7%
Sep+3.4%
Oct+16.2%
Nov+9.9%
Dec-11.9%
2021
Jan-0.6%
Feb-0.4%
Mar-8.8%
Apr-2.7%
May-6.0%
Jun-3.9%
Jul-3.9%
Aug-4.2%
Sep+0.8%
Oct+16.0%
Nov-9.7%
Dec+3.7%
2020
Jan+0.9%
Feb-14.2%
Mar+3.7%
Apr+20.8%
May+1.2%
Jun+6.5%
Jul+10.1%
Aug+1.6%
Sep-1.5%
Oct+11.3%
Nov-3.1%
Dec+9.7%
2019
Jan+10.5%
Feb+21.8%
Mar+0.2%
Apr+6.6%
May+12.3%
Jun+19.6%
Jul-12.1%
Aug-1.5%
Sep-15.3%
Oct-0.2%
Nov-8.1%
Dec-1.9%
2018
Jan-1.8%
Feb-2.6%
Mar+1.7%
Apr-0.0%
May-3.2%
Jun+3.8%
Jul+6.7%
Aug-0.6%
Sep+3.2%
Oct+2.4%
Nov+5.5%
Dec-2.6%
2017
Jan+0.4%
Feb+5.8%
Mar+3.4%
Apr+1.6%
May-4.9%
Jun+6.2%
Jul+2.6%
Aug-5.2%
Sep-0.2%
Oct+0.9%
Nov+2.5%
Dec-1.7%
2016
Jan+0.5%
Feb-2.2%
Mar-1.1%
Apr+2.3%
May+3.7%
Jun+1.5%
Jul-0.9%
Aug+4.4%
Sep+0.0%
Oct+1.0%
Nov+4.7%
Dec+4.9%
2015
Jan-3.8%
Feb+0.3%
Mar+0.4%
Apr-4.4%
May-1.7%
Jun+0.9%
Jul+6.0%
Aug-5.0%
Sep+1.2%
Oct+6.3%
Nov+10.1%
Dec+0.0%
2014
Jan-3.2%
Feb+3.4%
Mar-3.9%
Apr+3.6%
May+5.7%
Jun-0.6%
Jul-1.9%
Aug+4.5%
Sep-0.1%
Oct+12.0%
Nov+2.8%
Dec+4.1%
2013
Jan+3.1%
Feb+2.6%
Mar+3.2%
Apr+6.2%
May-4.6%
Jun+5.0%
Jul+1.6%
Aug-8.2%
Sep-1.7%
Oct-0.1%
Nov+1.6%
Dec+0.2%
2012
Jan-1.2%
Feb-0.7%
Mar+2.4%
Apr-0.6%
May-6.6%
Jun-0.4%
Jul+0.3%
Aug-10.6%
Sep+0.8%
Oct-2.4%
Nov+14.6%
Dec+0.8%
2011
Jan+2.2%
Feb+5.1%
Mar+1.8%
Apr+2.6%
May-1.7%
Jun-0.7%
Jul+5.0%
Aug-0.2%
Sep-3.2%
Oct+11.7%
Nov-6.5%
Dec+5.9%
2010
Jan-0.0%
Feb+1.6%
Mar+8.8%
Apr+7.9%
May-0.3%
Jun-0.8%
Jul+8.9%
Aug+7.1%
Sep+6.8%
Oct+2.9%
Nov+10.1%
Dec+4.0%
2009
Jan-5.8%
Feb-15.3%
Mar+13.8%
Apr+4.7%
May-2.0%
Jun+3.3%
Jul+6.0%
Aug+3.3%
Sep-3.1%
Oct-4.8%
Nov+4.9%
Dec+6.8%
2008
Jan-1.6%
Feb-2.5%
Mar+3.7%
Apr+5.2%
May-4.2%
Jun-9.9%
Jul-4.4%
Aug+5.8%
Sep-8.6%
Oct-11.1%
Nov+0.7%
Dec+1.7%
2007
Jan-4.0%
Feb-2.5%
Mar-2.1%
Apr+0.3%
May+6.0%
Jun-3.0%
Jul-3.7%
Aug+8.2%
Sep+9.4%
Oct-6.3%
Nov-9.1%
Dec+0.3%
2006
Jan+0.3%
Feb+0.1%
Mar-0.8%
Apr-2.6%
May-0.7%
Jun+2.8%
Jul-4.1%
Aug+3.0%
Sep+2.6%
Oct-2.6%
Nov+11.1%
Dec+3.0%
2005
Jan+2.0%
Feb-3.6%
Mar+1.6%
Apr-0.8%
May+0.8%
Jun+4.7%
Jul+0.8%
Aug-4.1%
Sep+1.2%
Oct+1.0%
Nov+0.1%
Dec+0.4%
2004
Jan+1.7%
Feb+10.2%
Mar+1.7%
Apr-3.8%
May-1.5%
Jun+2.7%
Jul-2.7%
Aug+9.7%
Sep+2.6%
Oct-1.4%
Nov+4.1%
Dec+0.8%
2003
Jan-4.8%
Feb+6.0%
Mar-0.3%
Apr+3.5%
May+7.4%
Jun+2.8%
Jul-1.5%
Aug+0.8%
Sep-4.5%
Oct+3.2%
Nov+0.4%
Dec+6.1%
2002
Jan+4.8%
Feb-2.2%
Mar+3.6%
Apr+7.6%
May-3.2%
Jun-4.0%
Jul+10.3%
Aug-1.8%
Sep-4.6%
Oct-3.7%
Nov-2.6%
Dec-6.8%
2001
Jan-9.2%
Feb+3.0%
Mar+3.1%
Apr+4.7%
May+21.2%
Jun-17.6%
Jul+21.5%
Aug+0.4%
Sep+9.5%
Oct-1.5%
Nov-4.1%
Dec+3.5%
2000
Jan-5.4%
Feb+1.7%
Mar+4.6%
Apr-7.9%
May-7.6%
Jun+14.6%
Jul+1.6%
Aug-2.9%
Sep-5.0%
Oct-4.5%
Nov-10.5%
Dec+19.3%
1999
Jan-2.0%
Feb-11.1%
Mar+1.4%
Apr-0.5%
May-0.5%
Jun+5.0%
Jul-3.9%
Aug-1.0%
Sep+22.0%
Oct-2.8%
Nov+5.1%
Dec-3.4%
1998
Jan-3.9%
Feb+4.8%
Mar+6.3%
Apr+1.1%
May-10.2%
Jun+1.3%
Jul+5.6%
Aug-13.6%
Sep+3.8%
Oct-5.1%
Nov+2.9%
Dec+17.9%
1997
Jan+4.4%
Feb-3.9%
Mar-6.5%
Apr+2.1%
May-1.7%
Jun+35.4%
Jul-13.8%
Aug-3.7%
Sep+0.0%
Oct-5.9%
Nov-4.1%
Dec+0.9%
1996
Jan-2.9%
Feb+1.6%
Mar+33.0%
Apr+30.2%
May+17.1%
Jun+4.0%
Jul-4.6%
Aug-5.9%
Sep-3.0%
Oct-2.5%
Nov-12.7%
Dec+0.0%
1995
Jan—
Feb—
Mar—
Apr—
May—
Jun—
Jul—
Aug—
Sep—
Oct—
Nov-0.7%
Dec+0.8%
Avg
Jan-0.8%
Feb+0.6%
Mar+2.1%
Apr+1.4%
May+0.3%
Jun+3.0%
Jul+2.3%
Aug+0.9%
Sep+0.6%
Oct+0.0%
Nov+0.8%
Dec+2.3%
Median
Jan-1.2%
Feb+0.1%
Mar+1.6%
Apr+1.1%
May-1.5%
Jun+2.1%
Jul+1.6%
Aug-0.4%
Sep+0.4%
Oct-1.4%
Nov+1.0%
Dec+0.8%
Last 5Y Avg
Jan-0.8%
Feb+2.1%
Mar-2.2%
Apr-9.1%
May-1.0%
Jun+1.1%
Jul+6.8%
Aug+8.3%
Sep+1.1%
Oct+0.5%
Nov+1.3%
Dec-0.9%
Std Dev (σ)
Jan3.8%
Feb7.6%
Mar7.2%
Apr8.6%
May6.9%
Jun9.3%
Jul7.9%
Aug7.7%
Sep6.8%
Oct7.6%
Nov6.9%
Dec6.5%
Consistency (μ/σ)
Jan-0.20
Feb0.07
Mar0.28
Apr0.16
May0.05
Jun0.32
Jul0.28
Aug0.11
Sep0.09
Oct0.00
Nov0.12
Dec0.35
Win Rate (%)
Jan39%
Feb52%
Mar65%
Apr55%
May32%
Jun60%
Jul60%
Aug47%
Sep53%
Oct40%
Nov61%
Dec71%
Winning / Losing Months
Jan▲12▼19
Feb▲16▼15
Mar▲20▼11
Apr▲17▼14
May▲10▼21
Jun▲18▼12
Jul▲18▼12
Aug▲14▼16
Sep▲16▼14
Oct▲12▼18
Nov▲19▼12
Dec▲22▼9
Longest Win / Loss Streak
Jan▲3▼4
Feb▲3▼4
Mar▲6▼4
Apr▲5▼6
May▲2▼6
Jun▲6▼3
Jul▲5▼3
Aug▲5▼5
Sep▲4▼2
Oct▲5▼7
Nov▲7▼3
Dec▲14▼3
Best
Jan+10.5%2019
Feb+21.8%2019
Mar+33.0%1996
Apr+30.2%1996
May+21.2%2001
Jun+35.4%1997
Jul+22.2%2024
Aug+25.6%2023
Sep+22.0%1999
Oct+16.2%2022
Nov+14.6%2012
Dec+19.3%2000
Worst
Jan-9.2%2001
Feb-15.3%2009
Mar-8.8%2021
Apr-14.1%2025
May-10.2%1998
Jun-17.6%2001
Jul-13.8%1997
Aug-13.6%1998
Sep-15.3%2019
Oct-16.7%2024
Nov-12.7%1996
Dec-11.9%2022
−17.6%+35.4%
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