ERIE dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.21), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ERIE sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 6, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.21
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.21 | -0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.48% | +0.11pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.71% | +0.69pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$1.46
Per-event yield
0.57%
Annualized yield
2.24%
Previously paid
Jul 7, 2026 ($1.46)
Last record date
Jul 7, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 21, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Erie Indemnity (ERIE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $1.46 | 0.65% | $257.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -20.02% | -6.69% | |
| Q2 | $1.46 | -0.72% | $254.33 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.61% | -1.35% | |
| Q1 | $1.46 | -1.15% | $281.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +0.33% | |
| Q4 | $1.37 | -0.54% | $319.16 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.86% | +0.52% | |
| Q3 | $1.37 | -0.91% | $341.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.06% | +0.57% | |
| Q2 | $1.37 | -1.58% | $396.57 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.37% | +7.24% | |
| Q1 | $1.37 | 0.05% | $405.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.43% | -0.90% | |
| Q4 | $1.28 | -0.22% | $542.86 | >30 | no | no | -12.33% | -1.53% | |
| Q3 | $1.28 | -0.36% | $369.09 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.56% | +3.29% | |
| Q2 | $1.28 | 0.15% | $400.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.22% | -5.10% | |
| Q1 | $1.28 | -0.29% | $334.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.88% | +2.61% | |
| Q4 | $1.19 | -0.67% | $291.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.67% | +5.07% | |
| Q3 | $1.19 | -1.10% | $209.44 | 12 | no | yes | -4.75% | -3.40% | |
| Q2 | $1.19 | -0.15% | $232.67 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.01% | +1.47% | |
| Q1 | $1.19 | -0.13% | $244.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +3.17% | |
| Q4 | $1.11 | -0.15% | $229.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.98% | +2.72% | |
| Q3 | $1.11 | -0.89% | $195.18 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.32% | -1.09% | |
| Q2 | $1.11 | -0.57% | $181.36 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +2.87% | |
| Q1 | $1.11 | -0.02% | $193.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.46% | -0.70% | |
| Q4 | $1.04 | -0.97% | $182.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | +5.89% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with ERIE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical ERIE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.17%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+3.49%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+54.13%
Best event
+0.61%
Worst event
-3.40%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ERIE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.57% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.51% | |
| -3.40% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.35% | |
| -1.53% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.57% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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