Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ERIE is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$778.53
Method range
$60.61 – $778.53
median $378.51
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $778.53 | +242.63% |
| Exit multiple | $378.51 | +66.58% |
| Analyst target | — | — |
| Graham number | $60.61 | -73.32% |
- Forward DCF$778.53
- Exit multiple$378.51
- Analyst target—
- Graham number$60.61
Stock price
$227.22
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.17
3Y FCF CAGR
18.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$123.59
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
26.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -83.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
18.5%
Your model implies
26.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 18% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 24.9% | 23.2% | 21.1% | 18.6% | 15.4% |
| 5.1% | 25.3% | 23.6% | 21.5% | 19.1% | 16.1% |
| 6.1% | 29.3% | 27.9% | 26.4% | 24.6% | 22.6% |
| 7.1% | 32.7% | 31.6% | 30.4% | 29.0% | 27.5% |
| 8.1% | 35.8% | 34.9% | 33.8% | 32.7% | 31.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.14
Low vs growth
Net cash
$346M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.31
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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