ES dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 80% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Eversource Energy (ES) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 80% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.45), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ES sits noticeably below the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 8, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
80%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.45
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 80% | -15pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.45 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.04% | -0.36pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.60% | -0.86pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 23 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.79
Per-event yield
1.17%
Annualized yield
4.52%
Previously paid
May 18, 2026 ($0.79)
Last record date
May 18, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 30, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Eversource Energy (ES). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.79 | -0.22% | $67.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.85% | +4.94% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | -2.03% | $75.32 | >30 | no | no | -4.61% | -1.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -1.06% | $67.89 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.55% | +0.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -1.49% | $67.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +6.39% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.49% | $61.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.98% | +4.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -0.68% | $63.01 | 23 | no | yes | -8.16% | -2.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.72 | -1.67% | $58.51 | 20 | no | yes | -4.60% | -0.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.72 | -0.31% | $67.14 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.66% | +2.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.72 | -0.08% | $60.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.95% | -0.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.72 | -1.93% | $58.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.82% | +5.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -1.94% | $63.53 | 11 | no | yes | -4.91% | -2.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -1.45% | $64.01 | >30 | no | no | -15.31% | -8.10% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | -0.70% | $74.52 | >30 | no | no | -9.03% | -2.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -1.78% | $75.36 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.85% | +0.31% | |
| Q4 | $0.64 | -1.23% | $85.85 | 15 | no | yes | -4.83% | -2.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.64 | -1.38% | $87.99 | >30 | no | no | -14.32% | -10.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.64 | -0.28% | $90.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.65% | +3.03% | |
| Q1 | $0.64 | -0.55% | $80.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.21% | +5.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.66% | $90.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.13% | -0.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.86% | $86.97 | 17 | no | yes | -7.61% | -3.93% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 7 | 35% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
Pre-filled with ES's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical ES ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-1.24%
Win rate (20 trades)
55%
Cumulative P&L
-24.76%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-5.74%
Best event
+1.23%
Worst event
-10.68%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ES (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -3.93% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.71% | |
| -10.68% | |
| -2.41% | |
| +0.90% | |
| -2.74% | |
| -8.10% | |
| -2.79% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.06% | |
| -0.78% | |
| -2.73% | |
| +1.23% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.11% | |
| -1.76% | |
| +1.17% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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