EXPD dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 10 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Expeditors International (EXPD) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 10 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.29), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EXPD sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Nov 30, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.29
TL;DR over the most recent 10 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.29 | +0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.67% | -0.34pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 75% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.52% | +1.50pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 5 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.81
Per-event yield
0.51%
Annualized yield
0.99%
Previously paid
Jun 1, 2026 ($0.81)
Last record date
Jun 1, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Expeditors International (EXPD). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.81 | -0.75% | $157.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.08% | +3.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.77 | -0.97% | $146.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +1.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.77 | -1.09% | $112.73 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.51% | +0.92% | |
| Q4 | $0.73 | -0.77% | $121.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.83% | -0.22% | |
| Q2 | $0.73 | 0.12% | $120.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +5.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.69 | -0.46% | $119.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.53% | +1.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.69 | -0.90% | $115.10 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.52% | +2.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | -0.17% | $113.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.25% | -4.66% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -0.92% | $110.65 | 5 | yes | yes | -13.23% | -0.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.80% | $126.76 | 5 | yes | yes | -9.27% | +2.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | -0.04% | $125.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.53% | +0.22% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.38% | $88.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.14% | +1.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.86% | $75.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.87% | +3.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.79% | $75.75 | 10 | no | yes | -4.45% | -2.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -1.22% | $70.30 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +3.93% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -0.46% | $75.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.91% | -5.54% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -0.93% | $75.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +1.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -1.32% | $64.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.67% | +0.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -1.17% | $52.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +3.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.68% | $52.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.81% | +3.16% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with EXPD's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical EXPD ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.47%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+9.35%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+225.51%
Best event
+0.79%
Worst event
-2.24%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EXPD (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.76% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.71% | |
| -2.24% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.51% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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