Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what EXPD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$129.29
Method range
$25.72 – $142.63
median $124.19
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $129.29 | -19.41% |
| Exit multiple | $119.09 | -25.77% |
| Analyst target | $142.63 | -11.10% |
| Graham number | $25.72 | -83.97% |
- Forward DCF$129.29
- Exit multiple$119.09
- Analyst target$142.63
- Graham number$25.72
Stock price
$160.44
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.22
3Y FCF CAGR
9.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$52.51
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
24.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -205.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
9.5%
Your model implies
24.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | 21.2% | 20.3% | 19.4% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| 8.8% | 23.7% | 23.0% | 22.2% | 21.3% | 20.4% |
| 9.8% | 26.1% | 25.5% | 24.8% | 24.0% | 23.2% |
| 10.8% | 28.4% | 27.8% | 27.2% | 26.5% | 25.8% |
| 11.8% | 30.5% | 30.0% | 29.4% | 28.8% | 28.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.42
Fair vs growth
Net cash
$744M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.05
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Expeditors International (EXPD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation