Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what EXPD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$127.85
Method range
$25.72 – $160.00
median $124.27
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $127.85 | -27.95% |
| Exit multiple | $120.69 | -31.99% |
| Analyst target | $160.00 | -9.83% |
| Graham number | $25.72 | -85.50% |
- Forward DCF$127.85
- Exit multiple$120.69
- Analyst target$160.00
- Graham number$25.72
Stock price
$177.45
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.22
3Y FCF CAGR
9.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$51.91
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
26.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -241.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
9.5%
Your model implies
26.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | 22.7% | 21.9% | 20.9% | 19.9% | 18.8% |
| 8.9% | 25.3% | 24.6% | 23.8% | 22.9% | 22.0% |
| 9.9% | 27.7% | 27.1% | 26.4% | 25.6% | 24.8% |
| 10.9% | 30.0% | 29.4% | 28.8% | 28.1% | 27.4% |
| 11.9% | 32.2% | 31.6% | 31.1% | 30.5% | 29.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.42
Fair vs growth
Net cash
$744M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.04
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Expeditors International (EXPD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks4.07% TTM
- Dividend Profile0.89% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History6 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.