EXPE dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 83% /30d touch rate over 6 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Expedia Group (EXPE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 83% of the last 6 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.05), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EXPE sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 20, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
83%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.05
TL;DR over the most recent 6 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 83% | -12pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.05 | -0.16 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.90% | +1.31pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.41% | +2.08pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 1 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.48
Per-event yield
0.21%
Annualized yield
0.77%
Previously paid
May 28, 2026 ($0.48)
Last record date
May 28, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 18, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Expedia Group (EXPE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.08% | $226.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.56% | +0.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | 5.98% | $221.73 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.08% | +2.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.32% | $240.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.36% | +7.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | 0.33% | $212.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +1.48% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 1.08% | $167.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.67% | +3.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -2.26% | $190.99 | >30 | no | no | -18.02% | -17.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | -8.11% | $91.85 | >30 | no | no | -55.62% | -40.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | -0.07% | $95.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +3.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.59% | $130.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.77% | -0.69% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -1.04% | $117.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.47% | -0.90% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | -0.03% | $125.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.31% | -4.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | 0.51% | $122.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.90% | -7.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | -0.99% | $131.51 | 4 | yes | yes | -6.13% | +1.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.96% | $116.29 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +4.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.62% | $108.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +4.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.16% | $122.09 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.73% | +4.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 0.20% | $145.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.95% | -0.51% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | 0.16% | $142.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.59% | +1.09% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.63% | $121.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +5.31% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 2.40% | $119.16 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.75% | +7.28% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with EXPE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical EXPE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-2.67%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
-53.31%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+96.74%
Best event
+0.36%
Worst event
-40.08%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EXPE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.22% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.36% | |
| -40.08% | |
| -17.53% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.21% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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