Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what EXPE is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$402.93
Method range
$19.83 – $490.22
median $337.20
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $402.93 | +76.04% |
| Exit multiple | $490.22 | +114.18% |
| Analyst target | $271.47 | +18.61% |
| Graham number | $19.83 | -91.34% |
- Forward DCF$402.93
- Exit multiple$490.22
- Analyst target$271.47
- Graham number$19.83
Stock price
$228.88
FCF / share (TTM)
$30.76
3Y FCF CAGR
3.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$406.03
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
-4.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 43.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
3.5%
Your model implies
-4.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 4% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 7.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | -7.2% | -7.6% | -8.0% | -8.5% | -9.1% |
| 9.8% | -5.6% | -6.0% | -6.4% | -6.8% | -7.2% |
| 10.8% | -4.2% | -4.5% | -4.8% | -5.2% | -5.6% |
| 11.8% | -2.8% | -3.0% | -3.3% | -3.7% | -4.0% |
| 12.8% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
11.38
Demanding vs growth
Net cash
$307M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.26
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Expedia Group (EXPE) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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