H.B. Fuller (FUL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.12), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, FUL sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 27, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.12-0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.12 | -0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.41% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 42% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.70% | +1.01pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.24 |
| Per-event yield | 0.41% |
| Annualized yield | 1.57% |
| Previously paid | Apr 30, 2026 ($0.24) |
| Last record date | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 14, 2026 |
FUL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for H.B. Fuller (FUL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.24 | 0.00% | $59.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.61% | — | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -1.34% | $66.66 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.39% | +0.37% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | 0.08% | $59.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.74% | +2.64% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -2.12% | $57.08 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.36% | -0.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.28% | $54.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.54% | -1.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | 0.21% | $60.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.79% | -0.44% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.10% | $80.64 | >30 | no | no | -7.91% | -6.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | 0.29% | $86.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.09% | -9.09% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.80% | $76.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.32% | -0.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.03% | $75.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.21% | +1.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -1.39% | $70.54 | 13 | no | yes | -8.36% | -7.69% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.04% | $73.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.57% | +1.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -0.95% | $67.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.77% | -5.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.19 | -0.24% | $73.93 | >30 | no | no | -5.84% | -2.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.19 | -1.51% | $67.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.73% | +0.50% | |
| Q3 | $0.19 | -1.65% | $59.44 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.50% | +3.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.19 | 0.78% | $71.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.36% | -5.58% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | 0.07% | $69.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.83% | +2.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | 0.19% | $64.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +7.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | 0.46% | $63.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.88% | -1.37% |
- —
- +0.37%
- +2.64%
- -0.83%
- -1.61%
- -0.44%
- -6.88%
- -9.09%
- -0.97%
- +1.82%
- -7.69%
- +1.84%
- -5.75%
- -2.61%
- +0.50%
- +3.30%
- -5.58%
- +2.83%
- +7.20%
- -1.37%
FUL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
FUL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with FUL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $50.00
- After-tax dividend
- $32.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$11.97
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$20.53
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.17%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~8.6%
FUL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical FUL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · FUL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.26% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.28% | |
| -2.61% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.28% | |
| -7.69% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.26% | |
| -6.88% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.41% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.