Genuine Parts (GPC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.35), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, GPC sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.35+0.14 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.35 | +0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.51% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.89% | +0.78pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $1.06 |
| Per-event yield | 0.91% |
| Annualized yield | 4.26% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($1.06) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 2, 2026 |
GPC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Genuine Parts (GPC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.06 | -1.82% | $117.11 | >30 | no | no | -16.20% | -8.80% | |
| Q4 | $1.03 | -1.00% | $130.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.36% | +1.73% | |
| Q3 | $1.03 | -0.57% | $141.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.61% | +0.75% | |
| Q2 | $1.03 | -0.31% | $126.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.06% | -4.32% | |
| Q1 | $1.03 | -1.08% | $125.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.41% | -2.30% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | 0.30% | $124.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.09% | -1.93% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -0.75% | $137.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.66% | +0.74% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -1.09% | $144.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.75% | -4.78% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -0.23% | $151.75 | 6 | no | yes | -2.61% | +0.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.95 | -0.13% | $133.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +1.02% | |
| Q3 | $0.95 | -0.78% | $151.78 | >30 | no | no | -3.51% | -0.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.95 | 0.95% | $148.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.68% | +4.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | -1.13% | $170.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.12% | -2.44% | |
| Q4 | $0.90 | -0.11% | $183.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.37% | +1.74% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -0.83% | $156.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +4.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.90 | -0.35% | $135.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.84% | +3.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.90 | -0.23% | $124.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.40% | -1.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.81 | 0.03% | $126.38 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.03% | +6.82% | |
| Q3 | $0.81 | -0.52% | $122.96 | 9 | no | yes | -4.26% | -3.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.81 | -0.98% | $130.82 | >30 | no | no | -3.95% | -1.75% |
- -8.80%
- +1.73%
- +0.75%
- -4.32%
- -2.30%
- -1.93%
- +0.74%
- -4.78%
- +0.05%
- +1.02%
- -0.42%
- +4.14%
- -2.44%
- +1.74%
- +4.93%
- +3.43%
- -1.01%
- +6.82%
- -3.06%
- -1.75%
GPC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
GPC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with GPC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $212.00
- After-tax dividend
- $137.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$23.42
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$114.38
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.49%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~24.6%
GPC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical GPC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · GPC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -1.75% | |
| -3.06% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.64% | |
| -0.42% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -8.80% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.