Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HLT is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$189.99
Method range
$189.99 – $343.84
median $340.00
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $189.99 | -44.62% |
| Exit multiple | $343.84 | +0.22% |
| Analyst target | $340.00 | -0.90% |
| Graham number | — | — |
- Forward DCF$189.99
- Exit multiple$343.84
- Analyst target$340.00
- Graham number—
Stock price
$343.10
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.66
3Y FCF CAGR
198.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$925306.32
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
33.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 100.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
198.9%
Your model implies
33.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 199% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 5.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | 29.2% | 28.3% | 27.3% | 26.1% | 24.9% |
| 8.8% | 32.0% | 31.2% | 30.3% | 29.4% | 28.3% |
| 9.8% | 34.5% | 33.8% | 33.1% | 32.3% | 31.4% |
| 10.8% | 37.0% | 36.3% | 35.7% | 34.9% | 34.2% |
| 11.8% | 39.3% | 38.7% | 38.1% | 37.5% | 36.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.50
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$14.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.05
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Hilton (HLT) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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