J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.09), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, JBHT sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 7, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.09-0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.09 | -0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.33% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.17% | -1.14pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
| Dividend | $0.45 |
| Per-event yield | 0.20% |
| Annualized yield | 0.73% |
| Previously paid | Feb 6, 2026 ($0.45) |
| Last record date | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 20, 2026 |
JBHT Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.45 | -0.66% | $225.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.28% | -1.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | -0.48% | $169.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.63% | -3.42% | |
| Q3 | $0.44 | 0.15% | $140.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.79% | +2.54% | |
| Q2 | $0.44 | -0.32% | $137.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +8.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.44 | -0.21% | $169.03 | 6 | no | yes | -4.67% | +0.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -0.01% | $188.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.38% | -3.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -1.88% | $168.79 | 10 | no | yes | -8.16% | -3.12% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -0.01% | $167.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.59% | +1.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | -0.77% | $214.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.40% | +2.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | 0.01% | $175.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +2.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.60% | $204.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.40% | -1.00% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | 0.58% | $176.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.94% | -3.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | 0.75% | $197.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.96% | -4.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -1.37% | $167.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | +9.10% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.16% | $178.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.57% | +8.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -0.37% | $169.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.47% | -5.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.97% | $195.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.96% | -1.98% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | 0.00% | $195.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +0.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 0.01% | $167.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +3.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.46% | $173.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.29% | +1.52% |
- -1.35%
- -3.42%
- +2.54%
- +8.01%
- +0.82%
- -3.04%
- -3.12%
- +1.29%
- +2.35%
- +2.34%
- -1.00%
- -3.11%
- -4.73%
- +9.10%
- +8.24%
- -5.06%
- -1.98%
- +0.67%
- +3.47%
- +1.52%
JBHT Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
JBHT Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with JBHT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $90.00
- After-tax dividend
- $58.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$45.05
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$13.45
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.03%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~1.5%
JBHT Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical JBHT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · JBHT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.17% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.26% | |
| -3.12% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.20% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.