KEY dividend capture — median 3d pre-ex touch, 80% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
KeyCorp (KEY) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 80% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 3 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.44), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KEY sits noticeably below the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 1, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.21.
Touch rate (30d)
80%
Median days-to-touch
3d
Signal-to-noise
0.44
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 80% | -15pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 3d | +1.5d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.44 | +0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.46% | -0.88pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.92% | -1.51pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 26 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.21
Per-event yield
0.98%
Annualized yield
3.59%
Previously paid
Jun 2, 2026 ($0.21)
Last record date
Jun 2, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for KeyCorp (KEY). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.21 | -1.44% | $20.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.53% | +6.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | -3.16% | $20.91 | 26 | no | yes | -9.90% | -4.52% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.48% | $18.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.93% | +8.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -2.07% | $19.36 | 6 | no | yes | -3.67% | -0.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | 0.64% | $15.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +3.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | -3.00% | $16.98 | >30 | no | no | -12.43% | -9.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.94% | $19.11 | >30 | no | no | -5.70% | -2.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -2.06% | $16.95 | 3 | yes | yes | -7.55% | -1.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | -0.76% | $14.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.53% | -0.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | -2.17% | $14.26 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.14% | +3.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -2.08% | $12.04 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.32% | +13.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.92% | $10.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +7.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | -2.37% | $10.11 | 5 | yes | yes | -9.10% | +2.23% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | -0.16% | $18.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -18.34% | +0.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -1.89% | $19.03 | >30 | no | no | -11.25% | -7.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -1.68% | $18.43 | 8 | no | yes | -6.89% | -4.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -0.85% | $19.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.94% | -0.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -4.19% | $25.30 | >30 | no | no | -12.65% | -11.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | 1.14% | $22.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.76% | +1.55% | |
| Q3 | $0.16 | -0.81% | $20.89 | 5 | yes | yes | -6.13% | -3.30% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 7 | 35% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
Pre-filled with KEY's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical KEY ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-1.21%
Win rate (20 trades)
65%
Cumulative P&L
-24.11%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+20.61%
Best event
+2.03%
Worst event
-11.80%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KEY (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.77% | |
| +0.85% | |
| -11.80% | |
| +0.98% | |
| -4.96% | |
| -7.23% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +2.03% | |
| +1.88% | |
| +1.70% | |
| +1.44% | |
| +1.42% | |
| +1.21% | |
| -2.59% | |
| -9.51% | |
| +1.31% | |
| -0.28% | |
| +1.10% | |
| -4.52% | |
| +0.98% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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