KMB dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 75% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 75% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.59), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KMB sits noticeably below the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
75%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.59
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 75% | -20pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.59 | +0.21 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.91% | -0.27pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.61% | +0.38pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
Dividend
$1.28
Per-event yield
1.35%
Annualized yield
5.13%
Previously paid
Jun 5, 2026 ($1.28)
Last record date
Jun 5, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 2, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Kimberly-Clark (KMB). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.28 | -0.50% | $94.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.55% | +9.63% | |
| Q1 | $1.28 | -1.82% | $104.91 | >30 | no | no | -7.02% | -4.57% | |
| Q4 | $1.26 | -1.35% | $104.94 | >30 | no | no | -3.51% | -0.51% | |
| Q3 | $1.26 | -0.77% | $129.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.71% | +0.06% | |
| Q2 | $1.26 | -0.84% | $135.30 | >30 | no | no | -5.59% | -2.37% | |
| Q1 | $1.26 | -1.22% | $142.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.77% | -1.06% | |
| Q4 | $1.22 | -0.75% | $138.15 | >30 | no | no | -5.90% | -4.05% | |
| Q3 | $1.22 | -0.82% | $148.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.46% | -2.24% | |
| Q2 | $1.22 | -0.91% | $137.00 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.61% | +2.71% | |
| Q1 | $1.22 | -0.65% | $124.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.14% | +0.98% | |
| Q4 | $1.18 | -0.78% | $122.45 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.44% | -0.35% | |
| Q3 | $1.18 | -0.58% | $126.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | +0.37% | |
| Q2 | $1.18 | -0.78% | $135.00 | 5 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +1.85% | |
| Q1 | $1.18 | -0.40% | $123.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.48% | +3.47% | |
| Q4 | $1.16 | -1.07% | $136.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.88% | +0.64% | |
| Q3 | $1.16 | -1.37% | $127.44 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.27% | -3.81% | |
| Q2 | $1.16 | -0.60% | $130.81 | 10 | no | yes | -8.36% | -6.12% | |
| Q1 | $1.16 | -0.74% | $129.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.63% | -6.83% | |
| Q4 | $1.14 | -1.11% | $136.89 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +4.43% | |
| Q3 | $1.14 | -1.22% | $141.49 | >30 | no | no | -5.82% | -3.12% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 5 | 25% |
Pre-filled with KMB's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical KMB ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.38%
Win rate (20 trades)
70%
Cumulative P&L
-7.60%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-12.95%
Best event
+1.35%
Worst event
-6.12%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KMB (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -3.12% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.89% | |
| -6.12% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.82% | |
| -4.05% | |
| +0.88% | |
| -2.37% | |
| +0.98% | |
| -0.51% | |
| -4.57% | |
| +1.35% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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