Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what LITE is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$10.94
Method range
$10.94 – $985.82
median $131.49
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $10.94 | -98.73% |
| Exit multiple | $219.54 | -74.58% |
| Analyst target | $985.82 | +14.14% |
| Graham number | $43.44 | -94.97% |
- Forward DCF$10.94
- Exit multiple$219.54
- Analyst target$985.82
- Graham number$43.44
Stock price
$863.66
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.11
3Y FCF CAGR
-70.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.39
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
67.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -218876.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-70.6%
Your model implies
67.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -71% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.9% | 63.2% | 62.3% | 61.4% | 60.3% | 59.2% |
| 10.9% | 66.2% | 65.4% | 64.6% | 63.7% | 62.7% |
| 11.9% | 69.1% | 68.4% | 67.6% | 66.8% | 65.9% |
| 12.9% | 71.8% | 71.2% | 70.5% | 69.7% | 68.9% |
| 13.9% | 74.5% | 73.9% | 73.2% | 72.6% | 71.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.08
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$2.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.48
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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