MA dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Mastercard (MA) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.08), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MA sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 8, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.08
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.08 | -0.22 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.26% | +0.32pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.67% | +1.73pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.87
Per-event yield
0.17%
Annualized yield
0.64%
Previously paid
Jul 9, 2026 ($0.87)
Last record date
Jul 9, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 7, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Mastercard (MA). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.87 | -0.35% | $519.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +6.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.87 | -0.52% | $507.12 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +2.42% | |
| Q1 | $0.87 | -0.34% | $580.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.33% | -6.85% | |
| Q4 | $0.76 | 0.14% | $576.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.04% | -4.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.76 | -0.08% | $562.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.95% | -1.10% | |
| Q2 | $0.76 | -2.04% | $479.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.07% | +7.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.76 | -0.83% | $516.40 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.19% | +1.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.66 | 0.27% | $497.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.30% | +3.55% | |
| Q3 | $0.66 | 0.09% | $446.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.85% | -0.46% | |
| Q2 | $0.66 | -0.16% | $477.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.15% | -3.50% | |
| Q1 | $0.66 | 0.00% | $419.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +2.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -0.86% | $393.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.06% | +1.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -0.23% | $394.73 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +1.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.12% | $363.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.18% | +1.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | 1.57% | $351.77 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.01% | +6.91% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -0.53% | $304.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.98% | -3.21% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | 0.68% | $320.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.99% | +1.67% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.67% | $353.55 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.02% | +1.35% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -1.39% | $373.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.72% | -1.04% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | 0.09% | $348.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.36% | -1.05% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with MA's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MA ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.15%
Win rate (20 trades)
100%
Cumulative P&L
+2.96%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+53.77%
Best event
+0.17%
Worst event
+0.13%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MA (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.13% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.17% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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