Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,255.67
Method range
$27.20 – $1,255.67
median $652.62
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,255.67 | +136.04% |
| Exit multiple | $653.49 | +22.84% |
| Analyst target | $651.75 | +22.51% |
| Graham number | $27.20 | -94.89% |
- Forward DCF$1,255.67
- Exit multiple$653.49
- Analyst target$651.75
- Graham number$27.20
Stock price
$531.98
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.19
3Y FCF CAGR
21.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$236.13
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
32.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -125.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
21.2%
Your model implies
32.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 21% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | 28.0% | 26.7% | 25.3% | 23.7% | 21.8% |
| 7.3% | 31.3% | 30.2% | 29.1% | 27.8% | 26.4% |
| 8.3% | 34.3% | 33.4% | 32.4% | 31.3% | 30.2% |
| 9.3% | 37.0% | 36.2% | 35.4% | 34.5% | 33.5% |
| 10.3% | 39.6% | 38.9% | 38.2% | 37.4% | 36.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$8.43B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.73
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Mastercard (MA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
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- Buybacks3.31% TTM
- Dividend Profile0.63% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History1 split
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.