Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,247.81
Method range
$27.20 – $1,247.81
median $654.35
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,247.81 | +154.10% |
| Exit multiple | $653.14 | +33.00% |
| Analyst target | $655.56 | +33.49% |
| Graham number | $27.20 | -94.46% |
- Forward DCF$1,247.81
- Exit multiple$653.14
- Analyst target$655.56
- Graham number$27.20
Stock price
$491.08
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.19
3Y FCF CAGR
21.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$234.65
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
31.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -109.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
21.2%
Your model implies
31.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 21% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | 27.0% | 25.8% | 24.4% | 22.8% | 21.0% |
| 7.3% | 30.3% | 29.2% | 28.1% | 26.8% | 25.4% |
| 8.3% | 33.2% | 32.3% | 31.4% | 30.3% | 29.2% |
| 9.3% | 35.9% | 35.1% | 34.3% | 33.4% | 32.5% |
| 10.3% | 38.5% | 37.8% | 37.0% | 36.3% | 35.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$8.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.76
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Mastercard (MA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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