Mondelez International (MDLZ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.39), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MDLZ sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 30, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.50.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.39in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.39 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.49% | +0.15pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.88% | +1.23pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.50 |
| Per-event yield | 0.86% |
| Annualized yield | 3.33% |
| Previously paid | Mar 31, 2026 ($0.50) |
| Last record date | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 14, 2026 |
MDLZ Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Mondelez International (MDLZ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.50 | -0.60% | $58.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.99% | +1.85% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.57% | $54.81 | 7 | no | yes | -6.59% | -0.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.29% | $62.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.54% | +0.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | -0.56% | $67.78 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.77% | +1.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.47 | 0.19% | $67.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.76% | -2.98% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | -0.30% | $59.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.03% | -1.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.22% | $74.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.19% | -3.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.68% | $66.60 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.54% | -0.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | 0.01% | $70.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.31% | -2.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -0.60% | $72.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.72% | +1.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.26% | $69.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.57% | -6.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -1.41% | $73.22 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.74% | -1.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -0.50% | $70.37 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +1.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.43% | $66.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.18% | +2.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.89% | $58.14 | 12 | no | yes | -5.88% | -3.00% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.36% | $61.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.96% | +1.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -0.65% | $63.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +0.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.24% | $66.37 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +2.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -0.78% | $58.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.82% | +3.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -0.59% | $63.19 | 6 | no | yes | -2.18% | +0.28% |
- +1.85%
- -0.58%
- +0.75%
- +1.30%
- -2.98%
- -1.34%
- -3.68%
- -0.02%
- -2.01%
- +1.81%
- -6.42%
- -1.14%
- +1.51%
- +2.36%
- -3.00%
- +1.62%
- +0.79%
- +2.05%
- +3.15%
- +0.28%
MDLZ Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
MDLZ Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MDLZ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $100.00
- After-tax dividend
- $65.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$11.65
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$53.35
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.46%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~23.1%
MDLZ Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MDLZ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MDLZ (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.28% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.57% | |
| -3.00% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -0.58% | |
| +0.86% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.