MDLZ dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Mondelez International (MDLZ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.39), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MDLZ sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 29, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.39
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.39 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.52% | +0.12pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.27% | +0.72pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.50
Per-event yield
0.83%
Annualized yield
3.46%
Previously paid
Jun 30, 2026 ($0.50)
Last record date
Jun 30, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 14, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Mondelez International (MDLZ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.50 | -1.38% | $60.15 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.94% | -0.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -0.60% | $58.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.99% | +1.85% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.57% | $54.81 | 7 | no | yes | -6.59% | -0.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.29% | $62.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.54% | +0.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | -0.56% | $67.78 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.77% | +1.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.47 | 0.19% | $67.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.76% | -2.98% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | -0.30% | $59.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.03% | -1.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.22% | $74.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.19% | -3.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -0.68% | $66.60 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.54% | -0.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | 0.01% | $70.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.31% | -2.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -0.60% | $72.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.72% | +1.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -0.26% | $69.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.57% | -6.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -1.41% | $73.22 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.74% | -1.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -0.50% | $70.37 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +1.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.43% | $66.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.18% | +2.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.89% | $58.14 | 12 | no | yes | -5.88% | -3.00% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.36% | $61.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.96% | +1.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -0.65% | $63.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +0.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.24% | $66.37 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +2.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -0.78% | $58.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.82% | +3.15% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 7 | 35% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with MDLZ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MDLZ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.40%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+8.05%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+13.05%
Best event
+0.86%
Worst event
-3.00%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MDLZ (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.60% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.57% | |
| -3.00% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -0.58% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.83% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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