MLM dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.07), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MLM sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.07
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.07 | -0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.59% | -0.21pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 35% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.95% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.83
Per-event yield
0.14%
Annualized yield
0.58%
Previously paid
Jun 1, 2026 ($0.83)
Last record date
Jun 1, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 30, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.83 | -1.90% | $581.64 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.20% | -4.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.83 | -1.53% | $676.57 | >30 | no | no | -14.52% | -9.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | -0.73% | $623.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.73% | -0.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -1.04% | $616.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.73% | -0.22% | |
| Q2 | $0.79 | -0.86% | $547.55 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.51% | +1.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | 0.69% | $483.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.17% | -2.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -0.06% | $600.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.83% | -4.08% | |
| Q3 | $0.79 | -1.06% | $534.16 | 11 | no | yes | -8.26% | -4.90% | |
| Q2 | $0.74 | -0.13% | $572.08 | 11 | no | yes | -4.91% | -3.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.74 | -0.03% | $577.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.09% | +3.44% | |
| Q4 | $0.74 | -0.17% | $462.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +0.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.74 | 0.00% | $446.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.85% | -1.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.66 | -0.68% | $398.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.49% | +6.47% | |
| Q1 | $0.66 | 0.38% | $363.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.53% | -5.99% | |
| Q4 | $0.66 | -0.58% | $357.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.11% | -1.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.66 | 0.41% | $345.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.99% | +2.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | -1.74% | $349.45 | 5 | yes | yes | -10.69% | +0.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | -1.74% | $385.71 | 13 | no | yes | -6.73% | -6.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | -1.04% | $418.34 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.10% | +1.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | 0.07% | $382.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.78% | -3.68% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with MLM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MLM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-1.08%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
-21.57%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+52.97%
Best event
+0.19%
Worst event
-9.34%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MLM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.16% | |
| +0.15% | |
| -6.51% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.13% | |
| -3.32% | |
| -4.90% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.13% | |
| -9.34% | |
| +0.14% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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