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Fair Value for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)

See growth priced into Martin Marietta Materials (MLM): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what MLM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$977.65

Margin of safety
+41.10% vs current price $575.83

Method range

$325.22 $977.65

median $571.31

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$977.65
  • Exit multiple$458.08
  • Analyst target$684.55
  • Graham number$325.22

Stock price

$575.83

FCF / share (TTM)

$0.68

3Y FCF CAGR

9.1%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$14.55

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

63.7%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -3858.4% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

9.1%

Your model implies

63.7%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)10.2%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)9%
3Y CAGR 9%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 9% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
8.2%58.9%57.8%56.6%55.3%53.8%
9.2%62.3%61.3%60.3%59.1%57.9%
10.2%65.5%64.6%63.7%62.7%61.6%
11.2%68.5%67.7%66.8%66.0%65.0%
12.2%71.3%70.6%69.9%69.1%68.2%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday33.0
5Y low15.9
Median26.4
5Y high39.1
P/SToday5.7· at high
5Y low3.4
Median4.9
5Y high5.7
EV/EBITDAToday19.9
5Y low11.0
Median15.8
5Y high22.6

PEG

0.01

Low vs growth

Net debt

$5.3B

Total debt − cash

Beta

1.14

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions