Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MLM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$977.65
Method range
$325.22 – $977.65
median $571.31
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $977.65 | +69.78% |
| Exit multiple | $458.08 | -20.45% |
| Analyst target | $684.55 | +18.88% |
| Graham number | $325.22 | -43.52% |
- Forward DCF$977.65
- Exit multiple$458.08
- Analyst target$684.55
- Graham number$325.22
Stock price
$575.83
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.68
3Y FCF CAGR
9.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$14.55
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
63.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -3858.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
9.1%
Your model implies
63.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 9% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | 58.9% | 57.8% | 56.6% | 55.3% | 53.8% |
| 9.2% | 62.3% | 61.3% | 60.3% | 59.1% | 57.9% |
| 10.2% | 65.5% | 64.6% | 63.7% | 62.7% | 61.6% |
| 11.2% | 68.5% | 67.7% | 66.8% | 66.0% | 65.0% |
| 12.2% | 71.3% | 70.6% | 69.9% | 69.1% | 68.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.01
Low vs growth
Net debt
$5.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.14
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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