MMM dividend capture — median 4d pre-ex touch, 80% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
3M (MMM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 80% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 4 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.51), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MMM sits noticeably below the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 22, 2026 (±6 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
80%
Median days-to-touch
4d
Signal-to-noise
0.51
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 80% | -15pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 4d | +2.5d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.51 | +0.34 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.18% | -0.84pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 30% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.67% | -0.65pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±6 days.
Dividend
$0.78
Per-event yield
0.51%
Annualized yield
1.98%
Previously paid
May 22, 2026 ($0.78)
Last record date
May 22, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 12, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for 3M (MMM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.78 | 0.86% | $151.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.11% | +0.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -0.06% | $174.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.93% | -4.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.73 | -1.00% | $170.62 | 7 | no | yes | -4.28% | -1.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.73 | -0.71% | $158.72 | 13 | no | yes | -5.22% | -2.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.73 | -1.56% | $149.78 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.92% | -1.77% | |
| Q1 | $0.73 | -0.56% | $148.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.68% | -1.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.67% | $132.32 | 8 | no | yes | -4.53% | -2.42% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.73% | $130.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +0.77% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -1.05% | $101.49 | 11 | no | yes | -4.66% | -0.64% | |
| Q1 | $1.51 | -1.00% | $77.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +2.12% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -0.96% | $80.95 | 7 | no | yes | -3.19% | +0.95% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -1.79% | $85.11 | 7 | no | yes | -4.03% | -1.03% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | -1.74% | $83.76 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.78% | -1.34% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -1.99% | $95.97 | >30 | no | no | -6.99% | -4.52% | |
| Q4 | $1.49 | -2.02% | $107.64 | 5 | yes | yes | -5.73% | +1.62% | |
| Q3 | $1.49 | -1.42% | $122.64 | >30 | no | no | -16.13% | -10.75% | |
| Q2 | $1.49 | -1.84% | $124.52 | 7 | no | yes | -5.32% | -0.07% | |
| Q1 | $1.49 | -3.07% | $130.12 | >30 | no | no | -10.21% | -2.14% | |
| Q4 | $1.48 | -0.67% | $153.29 | >30 | no | no | -7.35% | -3.30% | |
| Q3 | $1.48 | -0.53% | $163.34 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.35% | +0.75% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 5 | 25% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
Pre-filled with MMM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MMM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.94%
Win rate (20 trades)
50%
Cumulative P&L
-18.82%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+7.41%
Best event
+1.95%
Worst event
-10.75%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MMM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.91% | |
| -3.30% | |
| -2.14% | |
| -0.07% | |
| -10.75% | |
| +1.38% | |
| -4.52% | |
| +1.79% | |
| -1.03% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.95% | |
| -0.64% | |
| +0.54% | |
| -2.42% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.49% | |
| -2.34% | |
| -1.05% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.51% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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