Medical Properties Trust (MPT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.59), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MPT sits noticeably below the Real Estate sector benchmark of 92%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 17, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 85%-7pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.59+0.15 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 85% | -7pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.59 | +0.15 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -2.01% | -1.14pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -9.01% | -4.25pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 18 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
| Dividend | $0.09 |
| Per-event yield | 1.90% |
| Annualized yield | 7.73% |
| Previously paid | Jun 18, 2026 ($0.09) |
| Last record date | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Jul 16, 2026 |
MPT Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Medical Properties Trust (MPT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.09 | -1.90% | $4.74 | >30 | no | no | -9.49% | -2.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.09 | -2.43% | $4.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.52% | -2.64% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | -1.45% | $5.51 | 18 | no | yes | -11.43% | -6.17% | |
| Q3 | $0.08 | -0.87% | $4.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.30% | +11.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.08 | -1.35% | $4.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.50% | +3.15% | |
| Q1 | $0.08 | -1.66% | $6.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.81% | +1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.08 | -1.46% | $4.11 | 5 | yes | yes | -10.95% | -6.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.08 | -0.61% | $4.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.27% | +30.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -3.72% | $5.37 | >30 | no | no | -12.85% | -7.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -4.01% | $4.99 | 11 | no | yes | -12.22% | -6.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -2.15% | $5.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.50% | +0.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -2.59% | $6.57 | 2 | yes | yes | -24.05% | -9.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -2.37% | $9.30 | 9 | no | yes | -7.20% | -2.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -4.81% | $8.52 | 14 | no | yes | -16.67% | -9.74% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -3.03% | $12.53 | 5 | yes | yes | -14.37% | -3.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -2.03% | $14.29 | >30 | no | no | -17.70% | -7.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.87% | $14.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.62% | +2.68% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -0.65% | $20.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.79% | +2.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -0.98% | $22.36 | 8 | no | yes | -3.94% | -0.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.31% | $20.59 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.59% | +1.51% |
- -2.53%
- -2.64%
- -6.17%
- +11.06%
- +3.15%
- +1.50%
- -6.57%
- +30.43%
- -7.64%
- -6.61%
- +0.20%
- -9.59%
- -2.26%
- -9.74%
- -3.03%
- -7.14%
- +2.68%
- +2.14%
- -0.27%
- +1.51%
MPT Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
MPT Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MPT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $18.00
- After-tax dividend
- $11.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$0.95
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$10.75
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +1.13%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~57.2%
MPT Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MPT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MPT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.36% | |
| -0.27% | |
| +1.44% | |
| +1.94% | |
| -7.14% | |
| +2.31% | |
| -9.74% | |
| -2.26% | |
| +2.28% | |
| +2.93% | |
| -6.61% | |
| -7.64% | |
| +1.62% | |
| +1.95% | |
| +1.33% | |
| +1.80% | |
| +1.74% | |
| -6.17% | |
| +1.83% | |
| -2.53% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.