Morgan Stanley (MS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.31), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MS sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.31in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.31 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.88% | -0.30pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 58% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.28% | +1.09pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $1.00 |
| Per-event yield | 0.53% |
| Annualized yield | 2.10% |
| Previously paid | Apr 30, 2026 ($1.00) |
| Last record date | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 15, 2026 |
MS Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Morgan Stanley (MS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.00 | -0.79% | $187.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.17% | — | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -1.20% | $182.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.31% | -0.79% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -1.16% | $165.26 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.36% | -1.15% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -1.20% | $144.94 | 9 | no | yes | -6.05% | -2.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.93 | -2.67% | $116.21 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.60% | +3.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.93 | -0.57% | $139.94 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.31% | +0.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.93 | -0.67% | $117.92 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.88% | +9.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.93 | -0.66% | $103.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.36% | -10.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.85 | -1.62% | $92.83 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.46% | +3.03% | |
| Q1 | $0.85 | -0.73% | $87.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.89% | -0.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.85 | -0.50% | $70.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +9.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.85 | -0.31% | $92.75 | >30 | no | no | -7.00% | -3.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.78 | -0.90% | $90.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.58% | -5.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -1.89% | $96.86 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +2.91% | |
| Q4 | $0.78 | -0.52% | $80.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +6.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.91% | $82.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | +4.39% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | 0.60% | $82.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.25% | +4.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -2.03% | $101.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.97% | +3.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 0.02% | $101.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.07% | -1.35% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | 0.09% | $96.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.29% | +2.56% |
- —
- -0.79%
- -1.15%
- -2.08%
- +3.28%
- +0.69%
- +9.71%
- -10.34%
- +3.03%
- -0.76%
- +9.05%
- -3.35%
- -5.10%
- +2.91%
- +6.12%
- +4.39%
- +4.17%
- +3.62%
- -1.35%
- +2.56%
MS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
MS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $200.00
- After-tax dividend
- $130.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$37.42
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$92.58
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.25%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.5%
MS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.73% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -3.35% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -2.08% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.53% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.