MS dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Morgan Stanley (MS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.30), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MS sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.30
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.30 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.87% | -0.29pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 58% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.28% | +1.12pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$1.15
Per-event yield
0.55%
Annualized yield
1.97%
Previously paid
Jul 31, 2026 ($1.15)
Last record date
Jul 31, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 14, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Morgan Stanley (MS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $1.15 | 0.30% | $210.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.98% | — | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -0.79% | $187.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.17% | +2.19% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -1.20% | $182.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.31% | -0.79% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -1.16% | $165.26 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.36% | -1.15% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -1.20% | $144.94 | 9 | no | yes | -6.05% | -2.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.93 | -2.67% | $116.21 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.60% | +3.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.93 | -0.57% | $139.94 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.31% | +0.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.93 | -0.67% | $117.92 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.88% | +9.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.93 | -0.66% | $103.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.36% | -10.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.85 | -1.62% | $92.83 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.46% | +3.03% | |
| Q1 | $0.85 | -0.73% | $87.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.89% | -0.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.85 | -0.50% | $70.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +9.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.85 | -0.31% | $92.75 | >30 | no | no | -7.00% | -3.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.78 | -0.90% | $90.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.58% | -5.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -1.89% | $96.86 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +2.91% | |
| Q4 | $0.78 | -0.52% | $80.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +6.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.91% | $82.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | +4.39% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | 0.60% | $82.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.25% | +4.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -2.03% | $101.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.97% | +3.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 0.02% | $101.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.07% | -1.35% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with MS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.44%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+8.81%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+123.69%
Best event
+1.21%
Worst event
-3.35%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.69% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -3.35% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -2.08% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.55% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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