MSA Safety (MSA) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.13), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MSA sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 14, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.13-0.05 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.13 | -0.05 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.16% | +0.20pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.45% | +0.58pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.54 |
| Per-event yield | 0.27% |
| Annualized yield | 1.24% |
| Previously paid | Feb 13, 2026 ($0.53) |
| Last record date | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 10, 2026 |
MSA Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for MSA Safety (MSA). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.53 | -2.00% | $203.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.51% | -3.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.53 | -1.25% | $159.27 | 8 | no | yes | -4.02% | -1.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | -0.90% | $170.19 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +3.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | 0.16% | $158.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +0.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -0.09% | $163.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.42% | -1.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | 0.23% | $172.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.58% | +1.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | 1.34% | $179.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | -0.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.01% | $189.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.76% | +0.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.47 | 0.15% | $175.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.49% | +2.92% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | 0.80% | $162.80 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.03% | +1.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.50% | $179.05 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.50% | -1.76% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | -0.48% | $143.47 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.88% | +1.19% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -0.42% | $136.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.14% | -1.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | 0.12% | $138.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.70% | +1.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.95% | $131.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.38% | -2.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | 0.52% | $119.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +1.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.44 | 0.52% | $137.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.52% | +2.13% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | -0.09% | $154.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.27% | +0.80% | |
| Q3 | $0.44 | -0.09% | $160.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.18% | -0.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.44 | -0.20% | $166.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.39% | -1.63% |
- -3.82%
- -1.81%
- +3.70%
- +0.20%
- -1.24%
- +1.59%
- -0.72%
- +0.75%
- +2.92%
- +1.78%
- -1.76%
- +1.19%
- -1.79%
- +1.04%
- -2.21%
- +1.29%
- +2.13%
- +0.80%
- -0.37%
- -1.63%
MSA Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
MSA Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MSA's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $108.00
- After-tax dividend
- $70.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$40.62
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$29.58
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.07%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~3.7%
MSA Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MSA ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MSA (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.26% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% | |
| -1.81% | |
| +0.26% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.