Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MSA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$342.03
Method range
$37.94 – $342.03
median $239.03
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $342.03 | +112.05% |
| Exit multiple | $255.72 | +58.54% |
| Analyst target | $222.33 | +37.84% |
| Graham number | $37.94 | -76.48% |
- Forward DCF$342.03
- Exit multiple$255.72
- Analyst target$222.33
- Graham number$37.94
Stock price
$161.30
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.68
3Y FCF CAGR
18.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$83.36
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
27.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -93.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
18.5%
Your model implies
27.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 19% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | 23.8% | 22.8% | 21.7% | 20.6% | 19.3% |
| 8.3% | 26.5% | 25.7% | 24.8% | 23.8% | 22.8% |
| 9.3% | 29.1% | 28.4% | 27.6% | 26.8% | 25.9% |
| 10.3% | 31.5% | 30.9% | 30.2% | 29.5% | 28.7% |
| 11.3% | 33.8% | 33.2% | 32.6% | 31.9% | 31.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$462M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.95
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
MSA Safety (MSA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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