Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MSA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$338.41
Method range
$37.94 – $338.41
median $239.12
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $338.41 | +96.95% |
| Exit multiple | $255.92 | +48.94% |
| Analyst target | $222.33 | +29.39% |
| Graham number | $37.94 | -77.92% |
- Forward DCF$338.41
- Exit multiple$255.92
- Analyst target$222.33
- Graham number$37.94
Stock price
$171.83
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.68
3Y FCF CAGR
18.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$82.47
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
28.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -108.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
18.5%
Your model implies
28.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 19% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | 24.8% | 23.8% | 22.8% | 21.6% | 20.3% |
| 8.4% | 27.6% | 26.8% | 25.9% | 24.9% | 23.8% |
| 9.4% | 30.1% | 29.4% | 28.7% | 27.8% | 26.9% |
| 10.4% | 32.6% | 31.9% | 31.2% | 30.5% | 29.7% |
| 11.4% | 34.8% | 34.3% | 33.7% | 33.0% | 32.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$462M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.94
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
MSA Safety (MSA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks2.04% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.24% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History5 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.