NJR dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
New Jersey Resources (NJR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.47), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NJR sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 8, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.47
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.47 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.60% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.46% | +0.28pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.48
Per-event yield
0.86%
Annualized yield
3.43%
Previously paid
Jun 10, 2026 ($0.48)
Last record date
Jun 10, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for New Jersey Resources (NJR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.48 | 0.69% | $54.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.93% | +1.48% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -1.42% | $54.31 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.94% | -1.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.68% | $45.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.87% | +1.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -1.00% | $46.93 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.36% | +3.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -0.53% | $44.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.49% | -0.45% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | -0.21% | $47.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.84% | +4.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -0.86% | $48.73 | >30 | no | no | -6.87% | -5.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.46% | $47.64 | 18 | no | yes | -4.37% | +0.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | 0.88% | $43.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.45% | -1.57% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | -1.59% | $43.51 | 29 | no | yes | -5.58% | -2.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -1.23% | $44.07 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +1.86% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.70% | $43.09 | 21 | no | yes | -9.17% | -3.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -1.39% | $48.79 | >30 | no | no | -6.01% | -1.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | 1.40% | $50.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.90% | +3.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | 0.73% | $50.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.80% | -3.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -1.54% | $44.12 | 25 | no | yes | -12.60% | -11.40% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -1.59% | $44.03 | 8 | no | yes | -6.90% | -2.22% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | -0.71% | $43.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +2.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -1.02% | $40.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.45% | +1.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | -0.76% | $35.65 | 10 | no | yes | -3.48% | -1.70% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with NJR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical NJR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.87%
Win rate (20 trades)
65%
Cumulative P&L
-17.35%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+78.74%
Best event
+1.03%
Worst event
-11.40%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NJR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -1.70% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.83% | |
| -2.22% | |
| -11.40% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.77% | |
| -1.02% | |
| -3.11% | |
| +0.95% | |
| -2.94% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.02% | |
| -5.91% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.86% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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