New Jersey Resources (NJR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.48), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NJR sits noticeably below the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 8, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.48in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.48 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.67% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.71% | +0.13pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.47 |
| Per-event yield | 0.87% |
| Annualized yield | 3.43% |
| Previously paid | Mar 11, 2026 ($0.47) |
| Last record date | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
NJR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for New Jersey Resources (NJR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.47 | -1.42% | $54.31 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.94% | -1.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | -0.68% | $45.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.87% | +1.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -1.00% | $46.93 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.36% | +3.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -0.53% | $44.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.49% | -0.45% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | -0.21% | $47.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.84% | +4.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -0.86% | $48.73 | >30 | no | no | -6.87% | -5.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.46% | $47.64 | 18 | no | yes | -4.37% | +0.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | 0.88% | $43.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.45% | -1.57% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | -1.59% | $43.51 | 29 | no | yes | -5.58% | -2.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -1.23% | $44.07 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +1.86% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.70% | $43.09 | 21 | no | yes | -9.17% | -3.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -1.39% | $48.79 | >30 | no | no | -6.01% | -1.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | 1.40% | $50.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.90% | +3.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | 0.73% | $50.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.80% | -3.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -1.54% | $44.12 | 25 | no | yes | -12.60% | -11.40% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -1.59% | $44.03 | 8 | no | yes | -6.90% | -2.22% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | -0.71% | $43.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +2.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -1.02% | $40.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.45% | +1.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | -0.76% | $35.65 | 10 | no | yes | -3.48% | -1.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | -0.85% | $43.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.23% | -4.01% |
- -1.02%
- +1.91%
- +3.27%
- -0.45%
- +4.16%
- -5.91%
- +0.02%
- -1.57%
- -2.94%
- +1.86%
- -3.11%
- -1.02%
- +3.09%
- -3.29%
- -11.40%
- -2.22%
- +2.30%
- +1.11%
- -1.70%
- -4.01%
NJR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
NJR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NJR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $96.00
- After-tax dividend
- $62.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.86
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$51.54
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.47%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~23.9%
NJR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NJR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NJR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.76% | |
| -1.70% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.83% | |
| -2.22% | |
| -11.40% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.77% | |
| -1.02% | |
| -3.11% | |
| +0.95% | |
| -2.94% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.02% | |
| -5.91% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.87% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.