Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NJR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$188.18
Method range
$35.81 – $188.18
median $53.29
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $188.18 | +239.61% |
| Exit multiple | $48.34 | -12.77% |
| Analyst target | $58.25 | +5.13% |
| Graham number | $35.81 | -35.36% |
- Forward DCF$188.18
- Exit multiple$48.34
- Analyst target$58.25
- Graham number$35.81
Stock price
$55.41
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.63
3Y FCF CAGR
—
Fair value @ hist. growth
$123.51
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
-2.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 55.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 10.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | -5.5% | -6.6% | -7.9% | -9.5% | -11.5% |
| 6.2% | -2.8% | -3.7% | -4.7% | -5.8% | -7.1% |
| 7.2% | -0.5% | -1.2% | -2.0% | -2.9% | -3.8% |
| 8.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | -0.4% | -1.1% |
| 9.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.08
Low vs growth
Net debt
$3.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.53
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
New Jersey Resources (NJR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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