NNN REIT (NNN) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.74), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NNN sits roughly in line with the Real Estate sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.74+0.30 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.74 | +0.30 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.22% | -0.35pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 63% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.95% | +1.76pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 18 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.60 |
| Per-event yield | 1.38% |
| Annualized yield | 5.48% |
| Previously paid | Apr 30, 2026 ($0.60) |
| Last record date | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 15, 2026 |
NNN Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for NNN REIT (NNN). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.60 | -1.26% | $43.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | — | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -1.65% | $41.82 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +4.04% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -1.69% | $40.84 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +1.10% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -1.97% | $42.10 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +1.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | -1.38% | $41.38 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.83% | +2.25% | |
| Q1 | $0.58 | -1.51% | $39.69 | 8 | no | yes | -4.23% | -1.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.63% | $45.98 | >30 | no | no | -10.64% | -8.46% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | -1.39% | $46.10 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.67% | +2.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.56 | -0.64% | $40.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +4.70% | |
| Q1 | $0.56 | -1.45% | $41.49 | 18 | no | yes | -5.35% | -1.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.56 | -1.25% | $35.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +11.69% | |
| Q3 | $0.56 | -0.83% | $43.58 | >30 | no | no | -9.00% | -6.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | -1.32% | $42.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.37% | +5.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.55 | -1.34% | $47.68 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.71% | -0.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -1.30% | $41.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.54% | +4.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.49% | $47.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | -0.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | -0.90% | $45.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.12% | -1.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.53 | -1.51% | $42.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.19% | +1.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.53 | -1.07% | $46.52 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.86% | +0.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | -0.79% | $49.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.31% | +0.24% |
- —
- +4.04%
- +1.10%
- +1.02%
- +2.25%
- -1.23%
- -8.46%
- +2.15%
- +4.70%
- -1.70%
- +11.69%
- -6.18%
- +5.51%
- -0.10%
- +4.37%
- -0.34%
- -1.41%
- +1.61%
- +0.41%
- +0.24%
NNN Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
NNN Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NNN's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $120.00
- After-tax dividend
- $78.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$8.70
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$69.30
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.80%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~40.1%
NNN Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NNN ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NNN (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.08% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.32% | |
| +1.15% | |
| +1.30% | |
| -6.18% | |
| +1.61% | |
| -1.70% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +1.26% | |
| -8.46% | |
| -1.23% | |
| +1.40% | |
| +1.43% | |
| +1.47% | |
| +1.43% | |
| +1.38% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.