Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NSC is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$250.53
Method range
$61.96 – $330.75
median $248.87
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $250.53 | -20.07% |
| Exit multiple | $247.20 | -21.13% |
| Analyst target | $330.75 | +5.52% |
| Graham number | $61.96 | -80.23% |
- Forward DCF$250.53
- Exit multiple$247.20
- Analyst target$330.75
- Graham number$61.96
Stock price
$313.45
EPS (TTM)
$11.87
5Y EPS CAGR
10.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$250.53
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
13.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -25.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
10.2%
Your model implies
13.3%
Next-year analyst consensus
2.2%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% |
| 9.9% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.0% |
| 10.9% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 12.2% |
| 11.9% | 16.1% | 15.7% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 14.3% |
| 12.9% | 17.9% | 17.5% | 17.1% | 16.6% | 16.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$15.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.27
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Norfolk Southern (NSC) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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