Northern Trust (NTRS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.36), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NTRS sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.36in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.36 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.86% | -0.28pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.01% | -0.64pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 21 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.80 |
| Per-event yield | 0.56% |
| Annualized yield | 1.88% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($0.80) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
NTRS Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Northern Trust (NTRS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.80 | -2.92% | $143.50 | 21 | no | yes | -7.48% | -4.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | -0.89% | $133.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.18% | +4.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.80 | -0.23% | $129.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.27% | +0.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | 0.63% | $106.47 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.37% | +1.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | 0.47% | $96.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.46% | +3.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -0.58% | $109.94 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.04% | -3.83% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -0.71% | $89.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.49% | -0.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -1.34% | $82.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.72% | -0.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -0.06% | $81.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | -0.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -0.95% | $80.67 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.82% | +7.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -1.51% | $76.33 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.54% | -2.78% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -1.25% | $75.78 | 7 | no | yes | -6.14% | +0.80% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.12% | $92.84 | >30 | no | no | -12.40% | -6.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.30% | $87.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.25% | -0.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -1.46% | $96.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.53% | -0.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.69% | $109.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -17.96% | -15.69% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -1.94% | $108.03 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.10% | +7.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.12% | $119.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.56% | +0.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.96% | $114.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.04% | -3.80% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | 0.65% | $118.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.11% | -4.54% |
- -4.03%
- +4.59%
- +0.56%
- +1.91%
- +3.57%
- -3.83%
- -0.75%
- -0.43%
- -0.34%
- +7.45%
- -2.78%
- +0.80%
- -6.97%
- -0.34%
- -0.31%
- -15.69%
- +7.73%
- +0.49%
- -3.80%
- -4.54%
NTRS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
NTRS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NTRS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $160.00
- After-tax dividend
- $104.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$28.70
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$75.30
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.26%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~13.2%
NTRS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NTRS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NTRS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.59% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.85% | |
| -6.97% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -4.03% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.