NTRS dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Northern Trust (NTRS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.35), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NTRS sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 4, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.88.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.35
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.35 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.85% | -0.26pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.32% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 21 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.88
Per-event yield
0.51%
Annualized yield
1.80%
Previously paid
Jun 5, 2026 ($0.80)
Last record date
Jun 5, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Northern Trust (NTRS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.80 | -0.61% | $173.06 | 6 | no | yes | -4.14% | +1.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | -2.92% | $143.50 | 21 | no | yes | -7.48% | -4.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | -0.89% | $133.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.18% | +4.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.80 | -0.23% | $129.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.27% | +0.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | 0.63% | $106.47 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.37% | +1.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | 0.47% | $96.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.46% | +3.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -0.58% | $109.94 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.04% | -3.83% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -0.71% | $89.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.49% | -0.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -1.34% | $82.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.72% | -0.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -0.06% | $81.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | -0.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -0.95% | $80.67 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.82% | +7.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -1.51% | $76.33 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.54% | -2.78% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -1.25% | $75.78 | 7 | no | yes | -6.14% | +0.80% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.12% | $92.84 | >30 | no | no | -12.40% | -6.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.30% | $87.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.25% | -0.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -1.46% | $96.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.53% | -0.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.69% | $109.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -17.96% | -15.69% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -1.94% | $108.03 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.10% | +7.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.12% | $119.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.56% | +0.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.96% | $114.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.04% | -3.80% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with NTRS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical NTRS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.15%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+3.09%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+61.83%
Best event
+1.20%
Worst event
-6.97%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NTRS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.61% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.85% | |
| -6.97% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -4.03% | |
| +1.20% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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