Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NTRS is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$194.74
Method range
$66.80 – $194.74
median $148.89
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $194.74 | +14.24% |
| Exit multiple | $144.03 | -15.51% |
| Analyst target | $153.75 | -9.81% |
| Graham number | $66.80 | -60.81% |
- Forward DCF$194.74
- Exit multiple$144.03
- Analyst target$153.75
- Graham number$66.80
Stock price
$170.47
EPS (TTM)
$9.55
5Y EPS CAGR
9.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$194.74
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
8.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 12.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
9.9%
Your model implies
8.0%
Next-year analyst consensus
13.5%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% |
| 10.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% |
| 11.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% |
| 12.0% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% |
| 13.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 10.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.07
Fair vs growth
Net cash
$44.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.29
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Northern Trust (NTRS) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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