Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NVDA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$14,228.54
Method range
$20.85 – $14,228.54
median $354.96
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $14,228.54 | +6,837.37% |
| Exit multiple | $400.45 | +95.25% |
| Analyst target | $309.46 | +50.88% |
| Graham number | $20.85 | -89.83% |
- Forward DCF$14,228.54
- Exit multiple$400.45
- Analyst target$309.46
- Graham number$20.85
Stock price
$205.10
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.00
3Y FCF CAGR
87.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$2822.87
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
41.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 92.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
87.2%
Your model implies
41.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 87% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 7.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 38.3% | 37.8% | 37.3% | 36.8% | 36.2% |
| 14.0% | 40.4% | 39.9% | 39.5% | 39.0% | 38.4% |
| 15.0% | 42.4% | 42.0% | 41.5% | 41.1% | 40.6% |
| 15.0% | 42.4% | 42.0% | 41.5% | 41.1% | 40.6% |
| 15.0% | 42.4% | 42.0% | 41.5% | 41.1% | 40.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.63
Low vs growth
Net debt
$807M
Total debt − cash
Beta
2.20
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
NVIDIA (NVDA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation