PG&E (PCG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 10 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.07), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PCG sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 30, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.05.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.07-0.39 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 10 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.07 | -0.39 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.08% | +0.77pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.37% | +1.47pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 1 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.05 |
| Per-event yield | 0.29% |
| Annualized yield | 1.06% |
| Previously paid | Mar 31, 2026 ($0.05) |
| Last record date | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
PCG Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for PG&E (PCG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.05 | 0.51% | $17.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.92% | +5.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.05 | -0.19% | $16.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.23% | -1.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.03 | -0.40% | $15.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.26% | +7.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.03 | -0.21% | $13.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.65% | -2.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.03 | -0.18% | $17.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.00% | -5.26% | |
| Q4 | $0.03 | 0.05% | $20.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -20.81% | -4.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.01 | 0.50% | $19.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.57% | -0.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.01 | 0.17% | $17.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.46% | -1.66% | |
| Q1 | $0.01 | 0.55% | $16.28 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.25% | +1.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.01 | 0.00% | $17.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.06% | -0.17% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | -0.82% | $67.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.04% | +2.40% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | -0.48% | $67.04 | 15 | no | yes | -3.28% | -1.94% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -0.76% | $67.34 | 6 | no | yes | -2.29% | +0.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -0.74% | $61.18 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.11% | -0.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -0.76% | $62.85 | >30 | no | no | -7.40% | -5.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.71% | $63.17 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.85% | +4.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -0.62% | $58.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +0.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.46% | $53.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.56% | -1.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -1.25% | $52.92 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.76% | +1.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -0.99% | $49.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +1.78% |
- +5.49%
- -1.93%
- +7.74%
- -2.11%
- -5.26%
- -4.25%
- -0.50%
- -1.66%
- +1.84%
- -0.17%
- +2.40%
- -1.94%
- +0.94%
- -0.25%
- -5.74%
- +4.29%
- +0.28%
- -1.49%
- +1.88%
- +1.78%
PCG Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
PCG Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PCG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $10.00
- After-tax dividend
- $6.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$3.50
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$3.00
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.09%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~4.3%
PCG Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PCG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PCG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.92% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.78% | |
| -5.74% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.94% | |
| -1.94% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.29% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.