Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.59), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PNW sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 3, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.59+0.14 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.59 | +0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.85% | -0.16pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 74% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.82% | +1.02pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.91 |
| Per-event yield | 0.88% |
| Annualized yield | 3.56% |
| Previously paid | May 4, 2026 ($0.91) |
| Last record date | May 4, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Jun 1, 2026 |
PNW Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Pinnacle West Capital (PNW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.91 | -1.66% | $103.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.80% | — | |
| Q1 | $0.91 | -0.73% | $93.56 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.48% | +0.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.91 | 0.78% | $88.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | +0.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -0.35% | $90.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +3.19% | |
| Q2 | $0.90 | -0.57% | $94.32 | 3 | yes | yes | -7.53% | -3.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.90 | -1.68% | $86.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.22% | +2.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.90 | -1.35% | $85.83 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +8.13% | |
| Q3 | $0.88 | 0.47% | $85.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +0.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.88 | -1.36% | $74.91 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.84% | +3.18% | |
| Q1 | $0.88 | -0.27% | $70.42 | 16 | no | yes | -7.41% | -3.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | -0.73% | $74.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.80% | -1.69% | |
| Q3 | $0.86 | -0.67% | $83.80 | >30 | no | no | -9.89% | -7.54% | |
| Q2 | $0.86 | -1.23% | $79.63 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.60% | +1.70% | |
| Q1 | $0.86 | -0.69% | $74.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.16% | +2.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.86 | -1.43% | $68.30 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.45% | +1.44% | |
| Q3 | $0.85 | -1.53% | $73.69 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.56% | +3.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.85 | -0.94% | $74.51 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.49% | +0.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.85 | -1.71% | $70.84 | 6 | no | yes | -3.26% | +0.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.85 | -0.20% | $66.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +3.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -1.05% | $85.40 | >30 | no | no | -10.15% | -4.95% |
- —
- +0.49%
- +0.11%
- +3.19%
- -3.56%
- +2.03%
- +8.13%
- +0.81%
- +3.18%
- -3.27%
- -1.69%
- -7.54%
- +1.70%
- +2.47%
- +1.44%
- +3.50%
- +0.62%
- +0.95%
- +3.99%
- -4.95%
PNW Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 7 | 35% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
PNW Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PNW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $182.00
- After-tax dividend
- $118.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$20.71
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$97.59
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.47%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~23.8%
PNW Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PNW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PNW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -4.95% | |
| +1.29% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.15% | |
| +1.27% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.09% | |
| -7.54% | |
| +1.18% | |
| -3.27% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.88% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.