Regions Financial (RF) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.43), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, RF sits noticeably below the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.43+0.12 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.43 | +0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.00% | -0.42pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.85% | -0.48pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.27 |
| Per-event yield | 0.95% |
| Annualized yield | 3.88% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($0.27) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
RF Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Regions Financial (RF). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.27 | -2.77% | $27.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.46% | -2.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | -1.77% | $25.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +4.54% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -2.26% | $27.39 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.03% | -1.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -1.17% | $21.44 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.03% | +4.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.63% | $23.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.78% | -8.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.70% | $27.26 | >30 | no | no | -9.13% | -4.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -1.45% | $23.42 | 13 | no | yes | -8.92% | -3.63% | |
| Q2 | $0.24 | -0.57% | $19.35 | 15 | no | yes | -8.42% | -4.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.24 | 0.16% | $18.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.21% | +6.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.24 | -0.76% | $17.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.40% | +16.02% | |
| Q3 | $0.24 | -0.65% | $18.58 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.38% | -2.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | 0.58% | $17.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.26% | +8.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -1.79% | $21.76 | >30 | no | no | -35.94% | -13.56% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -1.53% | $21.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.65% | -1.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -0.92% | $21.67 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.92% | +3.41% | |
| Q2 | $0.17 | -0.65% | $21.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.03% | -1.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | -2.32% | $22.45 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.12% | +4.41% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | 0.81% | $22.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.57% | +1.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | -0.60% | $20.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.32% | -2.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -1.16% | $23.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.45% | -7.76% |
- -2.17%
- +4.54%
- -1.11%
- +4.20%
- -8.14%
- -4.70%
- -3.63%
- -4.75%
- +6.57%
- +16.02%
- -2.26%
- +8.63%
- -13.56%
- -1.30%
- +3.41%
- -1.62%
- +4.41%
- +1.40%
- -2.29%
- -7.76%
RF Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
RF Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with RF's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $54.00
- After-tax dividend
- $35.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$5.57
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$29.53
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.53%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~26.7%
RF Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical RF ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · RF (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.67% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.93% | |
| -13.56% | |
| +1.16% | |
| +1.29% | |
| +1.40% | |
| +1.29% | |
| -4.75% | |
| -3.63% | |
| -4.70% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +0.95% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.