SJM dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
J. M. Smucker (SJM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.44), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SJM sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 14, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.12.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.44
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.44 | +0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.70% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.37% | -0.38pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$1.12
Per-event yield
1.12%
Annualized yield
3.76%
Previously paid
May 15, 2026 ($1.10)
Last record date
May 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for J. M. Smucker (SJM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.10 | -0.11% | $100.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +4.25% | |
| Q1 | $1.10 | -0.93% | $111.01 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.07% | +0.98% | |
| Q4 | $1.10 | -0.62% | $110.30 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.34% | -3.32% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | -0.66% | $111.44 | 2 | yes | yes | -10.04% | +2.57% | |
| Q2 | $1.08 | -0.92% | $112.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.10% | +0.95% | |
| Q1 | $1.08 | -1.77% | $105.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.09% | +6.53% | |
| Q4 | $1.08 | -1.10% | $110.75 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.12% | +3.28% | |
| Q3 | $1.08 | -0.97% | $119.49 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.68% | +3.04% | |
| Q2 | $1.06 | -0.57% | $114.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.97% | -2.48% | |
| Q1 | $1.06 | -0.41% | $125.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.46% | +1.38% | |
| Q4 | $1.06 | -1.12% | $111.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.71% | +2.17% | |
| Q3 | $1.06 | -0.70% | $143.65 | 8 | no | yes | -3.68% | -1.30% | |
| Q2 | $1.02 | -0.50% | $158.38 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.45% | -3.46% | |
| Q1 | $1.02 | -0.69% | $148.89 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.98% | -0.44% | |
| Q4 | $1.02 | -0.51% | $149.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.34% | -3.43% | |
| Q3 | $1.02 | -0.57% | $134.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +4.67% | |
| Q2 | $0.99 | -0.02% | $144.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.26% | -11.83% | |
| Q1 | $0.99 | -0.92% | $136.55 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.28% | +2.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.99 | -0.48% | $128.58 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.49% | +0.16% | |
| Q3 | $0.99 | -0.44% | $131.29 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.85% | +1.58% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 9 | 45% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with SJM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical SJM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.75%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+15.06%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-7.43%
Best event
+1.10%
Worst event
-1.30%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SJM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.75% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.64% | |
| -1.30% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +1.10% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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