What is a reverse DCF analysis?

Reverse DCF solves for the annual growth rate implied by the current price, instead of assuming a growth rate to compute fair value. This page runs the model on trailing EPS and on free cash flow per share — both views appear below so you can compare what the market implies under each.

What FCF / share growth is priced into SJM?

On the FCF / share basis, the model implies about 0.8% annual free-cash-flow-per-share growth for J. M. Smucker (SJM) at the current price. Compare to the 3-year historical FCF-per-share CAGR of 13.1%.

Why does SJM use FCF / share instead of EPS?

J. M. Smucker (SJM) has non-positive trailing EPS, so a standard EPS-based reverse DCF would not be meaningful. The page runs the model on free cash flow per share instead — operating cash flow minus capital expenditure, divided by diluted shares.

What is SJM's fair value based on historical growth?

If J. M. Smucker (SJM) grew at its historical per-share CAGR in the DCF setup, the model produces the following fair values. Using the historical FCF-per-share CAGR, fair value lands at about $328.72 — 178.5% above the current price.

Is SJM overvalued or undervalued?

Compare the implied per-share growth on each basis to the corresponding historical CAGR and, for EPS, to analyst consensus. A reverse DCF is one educational lens — it does not account for changes in capital structure, sector cycles, or business-model transitions, and it is not investment advice.

SJM fair value & reverse DCF

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what SJM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

—

Method range

$65.21 – $159.48

median $120.33

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

Method	Fair value	Upside vs price
Forward DCF	—	—
Exit multiple	$159.48	+35.10%
Analyst target	$120.33	+1.93%
Graham number	$65.21	-44.76%

Forward DCF—
Exit multiple$159.48
Analyst target$120.33
Graham number$65.21

Stock price

$118.05

FCF / share (TTM)

$4.54

3Y FCF CAGR

13.1%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$328.72

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

0.8%

per year over your projection horizon

Discount vs DCF

Margin of safety 64.1% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

13.1%

Your model implies

0.8%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)5.9%

Terminal growth2.50%

Projection years10 yr

FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)13%

3Y CAGR 13%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 13% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.0%	0.2%	-1.1%	-2.6%	-4.5%	-7.0%
5.0%	0.2%	-1.1%	-2.6%	-4.5%	-7.0%
5.9%	3.0%	2.0%	0.8%	-0.6%	-2.2%
6.9%	5.6%	4.8%	3.9%	2.8%	1.7%
7.9%	8.0%	7.3%	6.5%	5.7%	4.8%

Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday16.1· at low

5Y low16.1

Median16.8

5Y high27.1

P/SToday1.2· at low

5Y low1.2

Median1.5

5Y high2.0

EV/EBITDAToday33.0

5Y low10.7

Median13.2

5Y high35.6

Net debt

$7.03B

Total debt − cash

Beta

0.25

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions

J. M. Smucker (SJM) Key Financials

Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric

Explore more

Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation

Overview

SJM Overview

Counters

Income Statement

Cash Flow

Capital Return

How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.

Forecast & Valuation