Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what SJM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
—
Method range
$53.81 – $156.16
median $113.89
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | — | — |
| Exit multiple | $156.16 | +50.82% |
| Analyst target | $113.89 | +10.00% |
| Graham number | $53.81 | -48.03% |
- Forward DCF—
- Exit multiple$156.16
- Analyst target$113.89
- Graham number$53.81
Stock price
$103.54
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.56
3Y FCF CAGR
-9.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$52.32
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
-1.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -97.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-9.0%
Your model implies
-1.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -9% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | -1.4% | -2.7% | -4.2% | -6.0% | -8.4% |
| 5.0% | -1.4% | -2.7% | -4.2% | -6.0% | -8.4% |
| 5.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | -1.0% | -2.3% | -3.9% |
| 6.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | -0.1% |
| 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.01
Low vs growth
Net debt
$7.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.26
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
J. M. Smucker (SJM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation