Sonoco Products (SON) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.39), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SON sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 7, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.39+0.18 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.39 | +0.18 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.88% | -0.40pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.88% | +1.80pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 30 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.54 |
| Per-event yield | 0.95% |
| Annualized yield | 4.13% |
| Previously paid | Feb 25, 2026 ($0.53) |
| Last record date | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 10, 2026 |
SON Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Sonoco Products (SON). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.53 | -1.02% | $57.08 | >30 | no | no | -9.67% | -2.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.53 | -1.06% | $40.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.47% | +0.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | -1.24% | $45.93 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.85% | +1.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | -0.87% | $45.05 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +4.13% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -1.08% | $47.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.72% | -0.77% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.43% | $51.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.36% | -1.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -1.01% | $49.50 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.02% | +3.78% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.65% | $58.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +3.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -0.51% | $56.93 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +0.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -0.18% | $54.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.15% | +1.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.95% | $56.91 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.90% | -1.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -1.24% | $59.85 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.72% | -1.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -1.57% | $61.07 | 30 | no | yes | -6.14% | -2.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -1.17% | $58.31 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.36% | +2.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -0.32% | $61.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.81% | +7.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -1.74% | $60.92 | 21 | no | yes | -9.29% | -3.78% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | -1.03% | $59.01 | 19 | no | yes | -6.51% | -3.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -0.36% | $60.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +2.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.29% | $63.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +3.46% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -1.30% | $69.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.08% | +0.10% |
- -2.75%
- +0.39%
- +1.85%
- +4.13%
- -0.77%
- -1.06%
- +3.78%
- +3.08%
- +0.63%
- +1.63%
- -1.60%
- -1.39%
- -2.49%
- +2.45%
- +7.42%
- -3.78%
- -3.34%
- +2.45%
- +3.46%
- +0.10%
SON Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
SON Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SON's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $108.00
- After-tax dividend
- $70.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$11.42
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$58.78
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.51%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~26.0%
SON Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SON ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SON (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.65% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.74% | |
| -3.34% | |
| -3.78% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.84% | |
| -2.49% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.15% | |
| +1.30% | |
| -2.75% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.