STAG Industrial (STAG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.20), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, STAG sits roughly in line with the Real Estate sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 30, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.39.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.20-0.24 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.20 | -0.24 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.23% | +0.64pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.24% | +1.47pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.39 |
| Per-event yield | 1.07% |
| Annualized yield | 4.02% |
| Previously paid | Mar 31, 2026 ($0.39) |
| Last record date | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
STAG Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for STAG Industrial (STAG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.39 | 0.44% | $36.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +6.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | -0.24% | $37.22 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.12% | +2.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | -0.28% | $39.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.09% | -1.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | -0.54% | $38.54 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.34% | +1.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | 0.00% | $34.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.54% | +4.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | -0.22% | $36.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.83% | -0.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | -1.06% | $34.93 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.46% | +0.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | -0.50% | $36.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.21% | +0.87% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | -0.89% | $35.92 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.17% | +2.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | -0.79% | $32.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | +2.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | -0.28% | $35.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -19.61% | -10.55% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | 0.22% | $35.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | +3.52% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | -0.73% | $34.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.28% | +0.91% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | 0.30% | $33.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.41% | -1.00% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | 0.11% | $37.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.14% | -3.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | 0.13% | $37.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.60% | -1.31% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | -0.79% | $39.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.73% | -4.22% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | 0.30% | $40.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.12% | -1.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | 0.00% | $40.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.74% | -3.40% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | 0.20% | $35.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.48% | +2.26% |
- +6.28%
- +2.24%
- -1.23%
- +1.52%
- +4.56%
- -0.04%
- +0.18%
- +0.87%
- +2.85%
- +2.17%
- -10.55%
- +3.52%
- +0.91%
- -1.00%
- -3.82%
- -1.31%
- -4.22%
- -1.06%
- -3.40%
- +2.26%
STAG Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
STAG Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with STAG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $78.00
- After-tax dividend
- $50.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$7.22
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$43.48
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.60%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~30.4%
STAG Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical STAG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · STAG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.35% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +1.07% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.