Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what STAG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$18.10
Method range
$11.71 – $42.25
median $25.64
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $18.10 | -56.17% |
| Exit multiple | $33.18 | -19.67% |
| Analyst target | $42.25 | +2.30% |
| Graham number | $11.71 | -71.65% |
- Forward DCF$18.10
- Exit multiple$33.18
- Analyst target$42.25
- Graham number$11.71
Stock price
$41.30
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.56
3Y FCF CAGR
18.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$27.11
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
24.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -52.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
18.8%
Your model implies
24.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 19% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | 20.9% | 20.1% | 19.1% | 18.0% | 16.8% |
| 8.6% | 23.6% | 22.8% | 22.0% | 21.1% | 20.1% |
| 9.6% | 26.0% | 25.3% | 24.6% | 23.8% | 23.0% |
| 10.6% | 28.3% | 27.7% | 27.0% | 26.4% | 25.6% |
| 11.6% | 30.4% | 29.9% | 29.3% | 28.7% | 28.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$3.28B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.98
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
STAG Industrial (STAG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.