Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TDG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$4,204.45
Method range
$1,362.95 – $4,204.45
median $1,569.30
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $4,204.45 | +239.41% |
| Exit multiple | $1,362.95 | +10.03% |
| Analyst target | $1,569.30 | +26.69% |
| Graham number | — | — |
- Forward DCF$4,204.45
- Exit multiple$1,362.95
- Analyst target$1,569.30
- Graham number—
Stock price
$1238.74
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.10
3Y FCF CAGR
22.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$77.72
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
64.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1493.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
22.5%
Your model implies
64.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 23% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | 59.1% | 57.7% | 56.2% | 54.4% | 52.5% |
| 8.0% | 62.9% | 61.7% | 60.5% | 59.0% | 57.5% |
| 9.0% | 66.5% | 65.4% | 64.3% | 63.1% | 61.8% |
| 10.0% | 69.8% | 68.9% | 67.9% | 66.8% | 65.7% |
| 11.0% | 72.9% | 72.1% | 71.2% | 70.2% | 69.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.80
Low vs growth
Net debt
$27.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.90
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
TransDigm Group (TDG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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