Truist Financial (TFC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.46), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TFC sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 7, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.46+0.15 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.46 | +0.15 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.14% | -0.57pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.31% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 5 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
| Dividend | $0.52 |
| Per-event yield | 1.00% |
| Annualized yield | 4.24% |
| Previously paid | Feb 13, 2026 ($0.52) |
| Last record date | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 2, 2026 |
TFC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Truist Financial (TFC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.52 | -1.52% | $52.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.15% | -2.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -1.28% | $45.33 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.86% | +1.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.47% | $42.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.26% | +4.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.73% | $39.56 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.82% | +5.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -0.73% | $46.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.59% | -1.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -1.13% | $46.20 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.25% | +1.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -1.26% | $42.07 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.42% | +2.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -1.75% | $39.39 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +3.25% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -2.25% | $36.01 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.94% | +2.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -1.38% | $30.40 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.84% | +5.16% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.95% | $31.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.19% | -6.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -3.08% | $27.90 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.05% | +8.82% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -0.39% | $49.26 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.72% | -1.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -1.66% | $44.49 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.36% | +3.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | 0.20% | $50.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.03% | +2.10% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -1.24% | $46.85 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.27% | -0.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -0.93% | $65.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.72% | -3.77% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.34% | $64.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.37% | -2.83% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -0.85% | $58.86 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.48% | -5.67% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -1.44% | $59.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.54% | +1.85% |
- -2.80%
- +1.48%
- +4.88%
- +5.97%
- -1.29%
- +1.88%
- +2.33%
- +3.25%
- +2.33%
- +5.16%
- -6.29%
- +8.82%
- -1.58%
- +3.51%
- +2.10%
- -0.53%
- -3.77%
- -2.83%
- -5.67%
- +1.85%
TFC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 9 | 45% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
TFC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TFC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $104.00
- After-tax dividend
- $67.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.41
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$57.19
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.55%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~27.7%
TFC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TFC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TFC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.75% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +1.86% | |
| +1.65% | |
| +1.71% | |
| +1.44% | |
| +1.32% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.31% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +1.15% | |
| +1.00% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.