Target (TGT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 79% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.30), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TGT sits noticeably below the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 12, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.16.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 79%-16pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.30-0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 79% | -16pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.30 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.69% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 25% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -8.66% | -4.54pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 5 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $1.16 |
| Per-event yield | 1.02% |
| Annualized yield | 3.50% |
| Previously paid | Feb 11, 2026 ($1.14) |
| Last record date | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 1, 2026 |
TGT Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Target (TGT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.14 | -0.26% | $113.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.21% | +3.15% | |
| Q4 | $1.14 | 0.21% | $91.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.89% | -4.76% | |
| Q3 | $1.14 | -2.31% | $106.26 | 5 | yes | yes | -11.40% | -6.05% | |
| Q2 | $1.12 | -2.06% | $99.09 | 3 | yes | yes | -8.57% | -5.01% | |
| Q1 | $1.12 | -2.45% | $132.45 | >30 | no | no | -6.64% | -2.42% | |
| Q4 | $1.12 | -17.95% | $156.00 | >30 | no | no | -22.94% | -15.89% | |
| Q3 | $1.12 | 15.94% | $144.33 | 1 | yes | yes | 3.15% | +9.46% | |
| Q2 | $1.10 | -0.37% | $160.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.00% | -2.50% | |
| Q1 | $1.10 | 0.26% | $149.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.17% | +2.33% | |
| Q4 | $1.10 | 0.89% | $107.30 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.73% | +22.93% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | -1.14% | $129.42 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.70% | -2.61% | |
| Q2 | $1.08 | -1.99% | $160.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.81% | -7.68% | |
| Q1 | $1.08 | -1.02% | $173.32 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.61% | -3.76% | |
| Q4 | $1.08 | 2.16% | $173.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -14.15% | -8.27% | |
| Q3 | $1.08 | 2.15% | $173.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.78% | -5.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.90 | -3.93% | $219.25 | >30 | no | no | -33.63% | -31.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.90 | 0.36% | $208.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.78% | -8.52% | |
| Q4 | $0.90 | -0.50% | $264.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.75% | -5.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -1.03% | $263.15 | >30 | no | no | -7.13% | -4.41% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | 0.57% | $210.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +7.60% |
- +3.15%
- -4.76%
- -6.05%
- -5.01%
- -2.42%
- -15.89%
- +9.46%
- -2.50%
- +2.33%
- +22.93%
- -2.61%
- -7.68%
- -3.76%
- -8.27%
- -5.96%
- -31.20%
- -8.52%
- -5.39%
- -4.41%
- +7.60%
TGT Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
TGT Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TGT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $232.00
- After-tax dividend
- $150.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$22.65
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$128.15
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.57%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~28.5%
TGT Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TGT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TGT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.32% | |
| -4.41% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -31.20% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.78% | |
| -15.89% | |
| -2.42% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.07% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +1.01% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.