Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TGT is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$84.43
Method range
$37.40 – $130.20
median $101.63
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $84.43 | -31.12% |
| Exit multiple | $118.84 | -3.04% |
| Analyst target | $130.20 | +6.23% |
| Graham number | $37.40 | -69.48% |
- Forward DCF$84.43
- Exit multiple$118.84
- Analyst target$130.20
- Graham number$37.40
Stock price
$122.57
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.58
3Y FCF CAGR
-11.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$8.40
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
25.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1359.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-11.9%
Your model implies
25.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -12% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | 21.4% | 20.5% | 19.5% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| 8.5% | 24.0% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 21.5% | 20.5% |
| 9.5% | 26.5% | 25.8% | 25.1% | 24.3% | 23.5% |
| 10.5% | 28.8% | 28.2% | 27.6% | 26.9% | 26.1% |
| 11.5% | 31.0% | 30.4% | 29.9% | 29.3% | 28.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$14.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.99
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Target (TGT) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation