Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TGT is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$83.65
Method range
$37.40 – $137.05
median $101.23
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $83.65 | -39.35% |
| Exit multiple | $118.80 | -13.86% |
| Analyst target | $137.05 | -0.63% |
| Graham number | $37.40 | -72.88% |
- Forward DCF$83.65
- Exit multiple$118.80
- Analyst target$137.05
- Graham number$37.40
Stock price
$137.92
EPS (TTM)
$7.57
5Y EPS CAGR
-1.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$83.65
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
5.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -64.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
-1.2%
Your model implies
5.6%
Next-year analyst consensus
10.9%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | -0.6% |
| 8.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| 9.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% |
| 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% |
| 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$14.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.98
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Target (TGT) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.85% TTM
- Dividend Profile3.31% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History5 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.