TJX dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
TJX Companies (TJX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.20), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TJX sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 13, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.48.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.20
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.20 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.15% | +0.57pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 70% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.36% | +2.13pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.48
Per-event yield
0.33%
Annualized yield
1.15%
Previously paid
May 14, 2026 ($0.48)
Last record date
May 14, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 4, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for TJX Companies (TJX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.18% | $147.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.43% | +7.42% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | 1.56% | $150.75 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.82% | +5.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -0.45% | $147.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.58% | +0.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -0.81% | $134.10 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.56% | +2.86% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -0.08% | $131.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.82% | -0.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | 0.07% | $124.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.01% | -2.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.78% | $121.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.62% | -0.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | 1.37% | $109.08 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.06% | +9.44% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.55% | $99.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.52% | +2.48% | |
| Q1 | $0.33 | -0.05% | $97.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +1.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | -0.26% | $90.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.87% | -1.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.33 | 0.49% | $86.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +3.54% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | 0.38% | $78.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +0.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.55% | $79.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.81% | +1.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | 0.14% | $71.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.18% | +10.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 1.53% | $62.70 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.32% | +9.78% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | 0.39% | $56.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.47% | +7.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | 0.80% | $70.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.03% | -4.37% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.11% | $69.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.55% | -0.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | 0.11% | $71.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.94% | +2.56% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 19 | 95% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with TJX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical TJX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.36%
Win rate (20 trades)
100%
Cumulative P&L
+7.27%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+116.04%
Best event
+0.52%
Worst event
+0.28%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TJX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.33% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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