Tompkins Financial (TMP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.31), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TMP sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 7, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.31in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.31 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.90% | -0.32pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.94% | +0.43pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
| Dividend | $0.67 |
| Per-event yield | 0.80% |
| Annualized yield | 3.04% |
| Previously paid | Feb 13, 2026 ($0.67) |
| Last record date | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 22, 2026 |
TMP Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Tompkins Financial (TMP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.67 | -1.15% | $83.79 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.45% | -4.93% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | -0.99% | $66.87 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.05% | +1.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | 0.34% | $62.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +6.19% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | -0.86% | $62.48 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.50% | +4.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.62 | -0.21% | $70.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.94% | -3.60% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | -0.23% | $73.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +3.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | -1.36% | $56.69 | 5 | yes | yes | -5.79% | +4.32% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | -1.23% | $47.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.92% | +3.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -1.97% | $48.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.90% | +5.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.96% | $54.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.35% | -4.68% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -1.18% | $61.07 | >30 | no | no | -9.96% | -3.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | 0.31% | $55.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.11% | -5.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -1.75% | $78.47 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.72% | -1.64% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -1.50% | $83.79 | 7 | no | yes | -4.11% | -1.53% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -1.02% | $77.15 | 9 | no | yes | -3.84% | -1.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -1.68% | $73.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.75% | -0.96% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | -1.77% | $80.07 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.26% | -1.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | 0.46% | $82.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.93% | +4.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.54 | -0.31% | $76.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.29% | +2.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -0.81% | $80.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.31% | +5.37% |
- -4.93%
- +1.48%
- +6.19%
- +4.34%
- -3.60%
- +3.91%
- +4.32%
- +3.51%
- +5.96%
- -4.68%
- -3.21%
- -5.89%
- -1.64%
- -1.53%
- -1.88%
- -0.96%
- -1.84%
- +4.19%
- +2.75%
- +5.37%
TMP Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
TMP Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TMP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $134.00
- After-tax dividend
- $87.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$16.76
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$70.34
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.42%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~21.2%
TMP Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TMP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TMP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.67% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.77% | |
| -1.88% | |
| -1.53% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +1.09% | |
| -3.21% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.23% | |
| +1.29% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.80% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.